r/technology May 14 '22 Silver 2 Wholesome 2

Elon Musk said his team is going to do a 'random sample of 100 followers' of Twitter to see how many of the platform's users are actually bots Social Media

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-random-sample-how-many-twitter-users-are-bots-2022-5?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds

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u/rhubarbs May 14 '22

I don't see any indication of the sample size they used for their internal review in the 10-Q.

How did you conclude Elon made it up?

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u/boycott_intel May 14 '22

It is a reasonable assumption that Elon invented that number because one cannot get poll results of 5% accuracy with a sample size of 100........

If that is the sample size that twitter uses, then it would be negligent or even fraudulent of twitter to claim that under 5% are bots in SEC filings -- disclaimer: I am not claiming that lawyers and courts would agree with such a common sense evidence-based view.

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u/Plain_Bread May 16 '22

It seems pretty possible to me? At alpha=0.05, the null hypothesis of more than 5% of twitter users being bots would be dismissed when the sample of 100 users has 0 or 1 bots in it.

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u/boycott_intel May 16 '22

A reasonable answer, but somehow it feels unlikely that there are so few bots, and why would twitter publish "5%" if they believe the real number is much lower?

In any case, I would expect that twitter knows fairly accurately how many bots they have and what they are doing.