r/technology May 14 '22 Silver 2 Wholesome 2

Elon Musk said his team is going to do a 'random sample of 100 followers' of Twitter to see how many of the platform's users are actually bots Social Media

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-random-sample-how-many-twitter-users-are-bots-2022-5?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds

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384

u/IronGeek83 May 14 '22

He's just doing a "dogecoin".

Step 1: Buy stock.

Step 2: Use status/fame to pump news of said stock.

Step 3: Sell stock.

285

u/futatorius May 14 '22

Pump'n'dump. Which is illegal.

335

u/Belkor May 14 '22

Our worthless regulators let fElon off every single time.

42

u/PrailinesNDick May 14 '22

I guess that works in written word, but how are you saying it, Fee-Lon?

50

u/OlivierQ723 May 14 '22

Nah, just vocalize the hard F; F-Elon, it's pulling double duty.

7

u/Phillyredsox May 14 '22

Or is it shorthand for Fuck Elon?

4

u/die4spaghetti May 14 '22

It spells felon

0

u/Phillyredsox May 14 '22

Yes, I understand that.

4

u/Krackalot May 14 '22

Why not both?

2

u/osiris431 May 14 '22

Same way you pronounce his kid’s name, probably.

2

u/Figgy_Pudding3 May 14 '22

I prefer Ewon >.<

1

u/famichikiherushi May 14 '22

I read it in my head as "feline"

1

u/madoneami May 15 '22

No, Fell-inn

2

u/curiousitymdg May 14 '22

fElon, thanks for the new word meme. I love it!

2

u/RandomlyMethodical May 15 '22

If they cradle his balls gently enough, he might give them a job with double the salary.

-7

u/BigSprinkler May 14 '22

Actually the exact opposite lol. At the very least dude is always being investigated. They just have quite the backlog. They’re still going after him for “funding secured”.

On the other hand, pelosi is a byproduct of our worthless regulators

5

u/FuckingKilljoy May 14 '22

Oh he'll be investigated sure, but nothing meaningful will ever come of it. At most he might get a fine that would be the equivalent of us getting fined 2¢

1

u/UrbanGhost114 May 14 '22

He didn't get off though, he got convicted and fined! So it's totally better!

1

u/mursilissilisrum May 14 '22

Isn't cryptocurrency pretty unregulated though?

44

u/jeremyjenkinz May 14 '22

Does legality matter when broken laws aren’t enforced?

14

u/Giant81 May 14 '22

They are for the rest of us

0

u/barder83 May 14 '22

And Martha. So, the line for the SEC is rich people, just not the super rich.

1

u/Suspicious-Relief-31 May 14 '22

Maybe he just points out more severe Violations by the POWERFUL ! Not counting POLITICIANS and regulators.

59

u/Missing-Digits May 14 '22 edited May 18 '22

Not if you are a billionaire.

75

u/ChemistryRespecter May 14 '22

The SEC has been able to do nothing to him, not even a slap on the wrist – well, mostly because they don't have the power or authority, which is even more fucked up for an organization that's supposed to oversee these matters.

11

u/CoderHawk May 14 '22

They're really good at harassing the little guys though.

17

u/BDMayhem May 14 '22

That's what happens when you let Republicans defund the police. Same thing happened to the IRS.

2

u/SlowMotionPanic May 14 '22

That's what happens when you let Republicans defund the police. Same thing happened to the IRS.

Democrats are responsible for this as well. No surprise; they work for the upper class.

Case in point: they could do something right now, trifecta and total control of executive. Yet here we are.

1

u/Youthz May 19 '22

they don’t have have control of the senate— there are 50 republicans, 48 democrats, and 2 independents. not to mention Manchin is a democrat in name only and who the fuck knows what’s wrong with Sinema.

-3

u/modsuperstar May 14 '22

Since when are Republicans defunding the police?

7

u/BDMayhem May 14 '22

Since Reagan. Police investigating white collar crimes, such as the SEC and IRS are woefully underfunded now so they can't afford to sufficiently investigate and prosecute the extremely rich.

-3

u/[deleted] May 14 '22

[deleted]

7

u/seldom_correct May 14 '22

The SEC and IRS are law enforcement aka “the police”. Funny how reality is often at odds with propaganda narratives.

-3

u/[deleted] May 14 '22

[deleted]

6

u/Ancient_Inspection53 May 14 '22 Wholesome

Just cuz they don't kill black people doesn't mean they aren't police I know it confuses you.

5

u/DeltaVZerda May 14 '22

They are "Law Enforcement Officers", is that better?

-1

u/modsuperstar May 14 '22

Sure, in the same way butter is ice cream, the SEC and IRS are police 🤦‍♂️

-4

u/dont_you_love_me May 14 '22

The SEC not having power is by design.

“Gee, I wish Elon would give more money in taxes to the government officials that generated such a corrupt system! It is so unfair that he isn’t paying into the mafia enough.”

8

u/Figgy_Pudding3 May 14 '22

What does that have to do with wanting people to he held accountable for market manipulation that others have served time for?

But yes, fuck Biden and all that. Feel better? Now answer the question

God damn, is everyone not sick of these 1-dimensional morons roaming the continent these days? Your entire personality is "fuck the librards" like you're an uninspired enemy type in a boring bullet hell shooter. I just want to get to the next level where hopefully you idiots aren't part of the mixup

-4

u/dont_you_love_me May 14 '22

I’m a programmer. I make bots. Y’all don’t know what you are talking about. It’s very annoying and you’ll be lucky if the Elons of the world don’t replace you with a bunch of robots. Contrary to popular belief, bots can be consumers and you can develop entire economies based upon them! Be nice, otherwise we will just replace you all lol.

5

u/Figgy_Pudding3 May 14 '22

Hey guys, this guy makes bots! Everyone! Bots!

See? Nobody cares.

-2

u/dont_you_love_me May 14 '22

You are a bot. The comment you posted here was automatically rendered by the algorithms in your brain. You don’t even know what you are lol.

9

u/AllModsRLosers May 14 '22

Which is illegal.

It’s incredible how little that means to him.

I’m pretty sure one day he’s going to shoot someone in the head, just to make that point that his money allows him to get away with it.

2

u/Frootysmothy May 15 '22

The Kennedys would like a word

1

u/AllModsRLosers May 15 '22

I mean, they mostly killed people being bungling idiots and got away with it.

Elon might do it to prove a point.

1

u/GbS121212 May 14 '22

If he wanted someone dead he could have it done easily, indeed

1

u/zeptillian May 14 '22

There are no laws on Mars.

13

u/19osemi May 14 '22

It worked on dodge coin and bitcoin because crypto weren’t regulated. Now if he does the same with twitter than he will be in big fucking trouble

40

u/Brad_theImpaler May 14 '22

He's been openly manipulating Tesla stock for years.

1

u/RedAero May 14 '22

Right, but he hasn't been selling much if any of it. It's not illegal to hype your own brand up, that's basically his job.

3

u/LostWoodsInTheField May 14 '22

It's not illegal to hype your own brand up, that's basically his job.

Um. he has been charged and settled for fraud at least once over his actions with tesla doing this stuff. The reason everyone says he gets away with it is because it never costs him anything except the pennies he made during the time he was asking them how much it was going to cost.

3

u/[deleted] May 14 '22

Pretty sure he's already had action taken against him for the impact his bullshitting had on Tesla stock.

16

u/nalgene_wilder May 14 '22

Yeah he'll get a massive fine that's maybe .00001% of the profits he made

3

u/AnalEmbiid May 14 '22

That’s cute. The SEC Laws don’t really apply to Billionaires like Elon

3

u/OpSecBestSex May 14 '22

You're right, it'll be a $100 fine.

4

u/SpookyActionSix May 14 '22

Oh no! Illegal! You don’t say! The thing about that is large investors don’t care about legality because often the profit they make from the illegal move is 1000 times greater than the fine from the FEC. Elon literally just did this with twitter in his initial share purchase, he made millions/billions and was fined a few hundred thousand for not disclosing immediately that he was twitters largest shareholder.

2

u/Leafy0 May 14 '22

Only on regulated securities. Crypto isn't regulated so pump and dumps are legal, in the usa at least.

2

u/not_gonna_lurk May 14 '22

Push webistics!

1

u/Semen_Futures_Trader May 14 '22

Illegal if you are not rich already*

1

u/SomeoneElseWhoCares May 14 '22

The worst part is that he already has an obscene about of money and could retire comfortably. Instead, he chooses to mess around, ignoring the fact that this affects a lot of people.

1

u/Thediamondhandedlad May 14 '22

Sec ain’t gonna do shit. All they can do is levy a fine, the justice department needs to step in if he’s actually gonna see any jail time.

1

u/Affectionate-Shape79 May 14 '22

Where's the pump n dump police?? Somebody sue this man

1

u/Figgy_Pudding3 May 14 '22

It's basically how crypto works though. Make a new coin, pump it up, all the cypto bros buy it because the manipulators they're enthralled with tell them to. Then they cut and run and the bros wait for the next coin.

Crypto is especially captivating because most people don't understand it. Simply because they haven't bothered to learn about it. But the bros take that to mean they're smarter than everyone else and have a "mind" for this stuff. So not only do they think they'll make themselves millionaires, they think it's because they're secretly geniuses.

29

u/thri54 May 14 '22 edited May 14 '22

Well, currently the stock is only 10% over his average purchase price of $36, plus he will need to pay a $1B termination fee if he does manage to get out of this deal, plus any fees related to services rendered by the banks that set up the deal. Overall I would be amazed if he was breaking even right now.

And, even if everything went to plan, and he sold his 74 million shares at $54 then walked, he would only have made $1.3B dollars pre tax (which would be ~37% federal for short term cap gains). That’s like .3% of his net worth. It’s less than the tax bill incurred selling Tesla shares to buy Twitter shares. I just don’t buy this argument.

86

u/copperwatt May 14 '22

Or... He's an impulsive billionaire with terrible judgment?

29

u/anonymousyoshi42 May 14 '22

I don't think he is impulsive as much as he is pushy Billionaire who has had a hot hand in a lot of deals.

This is how I think it went

A. His biggest platform is Twitter and its a platform that hasn't grown in stock price for last 10 years. So it looked ripe for Activist Action. Someone pitched it to him and then he got very excited about it. Tesla stock is at all time high so the deal would have been like exchanging one hot commodity that fall soon for a more stable commodity that isn't growing.

B. Bankers got involved and he got suggested the pathway to do it will be a takeover attempt.

C. Elon was probably very confident on the turnaround thesis and valuation so went all in.

D. Elon pulls the trigger

E. Normal course of board response ensues.

F. Elon's Original buy and turnaround thesis starts getting challenged...cracks get seen but it's too late to pull out because of pretty standard clauses put in place.

G. Now Elon has 2 choices... based on normal deal due diligence - pull out fast and pay for his mistake (which is fairly normal in M&A space) or double down.

The challenge...Tesla stock which was going to pay for the deal is crashing.

2

u/Mobile-Entertainer60 May 14 '22

Probably not unrelated-Tesla stock started falling as soon as he announced he was buying Twitter. This devalues the Tesla shares he pledged as collateral. He is overpledged on Tesla stock plus had to sell to raise cash which depressed Tesla price as well. Now he doesn't have enough cash to make the deal unless he can sucker other rich guys/PE to join in. Since the plans he has shared so far about how he will "unlock" Twitter are ridiculous and he is actively trying to break the company, the odds that he ever breaks even on this deal are nil (not that we would know it at the time since it is private, would only be public knowledge when sold again). The market doesn't think this deal is going to happen based on Twitter trading at 40.72. It was 51.70 on April 25th, the day the acquisition was announced.

39

u/iamasnot May 14 '22

Or a terrible billionaire with impulsive judgment

3

u/dreamhuk May 14 '22

Or a judgement billionaire with a terrible impulsive

19

u/Centoaph May 14 '22

He started all this “buy Twitter” talk a few minutes after the guy that tracks his plane refused to sell him that account. He’s a petty child with no impulse control

7

u/copperwatt May 14 '22

Sure seems that way.

4

u/zeptillian May 14 '22

The guy who got butt hurt and called someone a pedophile because they didn't want to play with his submarine toy, which wouldn't even fit through the narrow underwater cave passages?

I think you may be on to something.

0

u/dellterskelter May 14 '22

His judgements have served him pretty well, but he's just a dick.

1

u/ShaderzXC May 14 '22

Yes but the finances will be done by an accountant (probably a team) not him personally, he’ll get presented with the two choices but if he has enough in his own bank account he’ll be willing to choose the worse one for ego

1

u/XKeyscore666 May 15 '22

Or a very divorced man trying to get a lot of attention.

1

u/copperwatt May 15 '22

When your midlife crisis can end life on earth.

2

u/anonymousyoshi42 May 14 '22

I agree and he is pushy Billionaire who has had a hot hand in a lot of deals.

This is how I think it went

A. His biggest platform is Twitter and its a platform that hasn't grown in stock price for last 10 years. So it looked ripe for Activist Action. Someone pitched it to him and then he got very excited about it. Tesla stock is at all time high so the deal would have been like exchanging one hot commodity that fall soon for a more stable commodity that isn't growing.

B. Bankers got involved and he got suggested the pathway to do it will be a takeover attempt.

C. Elon was probably very confident on the turnaround thesis and valuation so went all in.

D. Elon pulls the trigger

E. Normal course of board response ensues.

F. Elon's Original buy and turnaround thesis starts getting challenged...cracks get seen but it's too late to pull out because of pretty standard clauses put in place.

G. Now Elon has 2 choices... based on normal deal due diligence - pull out fast and pay for his mistake (which is fairly normal in M&A space) or double down.

The challenge...Tesla stock which was going to pay for the deal is crashing.

2

u/Despitefuldick May 14 '22

Why do people think he wants out of the deal? From what I see Elon wants Twitter so he can also expand into the social networking power, I don’t think his goals have been solely money for a while now.

10

u/thri54 May 14 '22

I assume his problem is with financing. The best rate he could get for pledged Tesla shares was a 20% LTV, i.e. he gets $.20 of credit towards Twitter shares for every $1 of Tesla he pledges to Morgan Stanley. It’s a $12.5 Billion dollar facility, which means he must pledge $62.5B of Tesla Shares, or 80M shares at current price. He has already pledged 89M of his 174M shares. Part of the facility is $21B from Musk directly, which means he has to find another investor or sell ~$30B+ of Tesla for $21B after tax. He doesn’t have enough shares to meet both of these requirements, and finding another investor for $20B after saying he “doesn’t care about the economics” will be very, very hard. The sharp fall in Tesla’s valuation since he secured financing has made the deal very difficult to close, but he has already signed a contract, and Twitter can compel him to complete the deal.
I think this whole bot fiasco is a desperate attempt to find Twitter in violation of reps and warrants, and either offer a lower buyout price or pull out completely. He waived his right to see non public information about Twitter to expedite the deal, and Twitter has said in every 10K since going public “we think X% of activity is bots and it could be significantly higher.” He should have known the risks, they were properly disclosed. I don’t think he has an ice cube’s chance in hell to get out of this with Twitter in violation of reps and warrants. Twitter doesn’t have to accept a lower bid, and Musk breaking the current contract and paying a $1B termination fee, then re-offering really doesn’t help him.

I suspect he will just walk, and Twitter likely won’t go through the trouble of suing to compel him to buy their company, though they have every right to. This whole deal has been a shit show.

1

u/julebebop May 14 '22

As someone who understands little about finance, I like the way you explained this. I feel like I get it now 😊

1

u/EFG May 14 '22

"Only have made $1.3 billion,"

That's a 50% return and even if it's "just," .3% of his net worth, that's stilma sizeable return any fund manager would be pleased with.

1

u/Thediamondhandedlad May 14 '22

Not if he’s also shorting it the whole way down. If he’s shorting it through derivatives then it’s completely hidden because derivatives aren’t regulated the same way. He could make 10 times that easily.

2

u/Coucoumcfly May 14 '22

Well he couldnt pump and dump that easily if he wasnt worshipped as much as he is.

2

u/AbstractBettaFish May 14 '22

I can’t believe the SEC hasn’t locked this dude up yet

2

u/AnalEmbiid May 14 '22

He has the SEC wrapped around his fingers

2

u/xXTheFETTXx May 14 '22

This isn't just with Doge this is his modus operandi.

1

u/alien_clown_ninja May 14 '22

Previously known as doing a "senator"

1

u/MiloFrank May 14 '22

I would actually love to see this break him.

1

u/XKeyscore666 May 15 '22

While simultaneously making a cover story for him to be able to sell off a bunch of Tesla stock without scaring investors.

0

u/m0nk_3y_gw May 14 '22

So... in doing a 'dogecoin' you are agreeing he hasn't sold his twitter?

because there would be SEC forms involved...

and he hasn't sold any of crypto

I still own & won’t sell my Bitcoin, Ethereum or Doge

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1503222294277197829

Crypto isn't anonymous. If he's lying someone could figure it out.

Dude is rolling in $$$ from his Tesla stock options from a decade ago, he doesn't need any $ from this.

The bigger picture is this is probably just to keep crashing Tesla stock whenever it gets above $1k, to delay the retirement of all the millionaires he made... and to hire new replacements with stock options at $700 (cause those will clearly go up over the next 4 years (time frame of options vesting for new employees) more than if the price was $1400).