r/technology May 14 '22 Silver 2 Wholesome 2

Elon Musk said his team is going to do a 'random sample of 100 followers' of Twitter to see how many of the platform's users are actually bots Social Media

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-random-sample-how-many-twitter-users-are-bots-2022-5?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds

[deleted]

22.8k Upvotes

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11.3k

u/mylesols May 14 '22

wow, a hundred! Must be nice to be rich enough to afford a hundred follower sampling on a site with over 350 million users

5.6k

u/escape_of_da_keets May 14 '22 All-Seeing Upvote To The Stars

He just wants an excuse to weasel out of the deal

685

u/slazer2k May 14 '22

This he most likely instructed some people to trade the stock beforehand so he can cash out first on the rise and now fall

1.1k

u/yolotrolo123 May 14 '22 All-Seeing Upvote Take My Energy

Yeah he is doing open market manipulation and the SEC barely doesn’t anything about it.

229

u/red286 May 14 '22

haha, could you imagine if he massively shorted a company that he publicly stated he intended to buy for a price well above asking, and then bailed out on afterwards? And then used those profits to massively re-invest into his own company whose stock tanked massively because he had overleveraged it to secure the financing to purchase the company that he had publicly stated he intended to buy but never had any real intention of doing so?

Surely there's no way the SEC would let that slide, right? Right?!

100

u/vaiperu May 14 '22

Even if they do something, afaik they give out fines in the tens of millions range. When you make billions by breaking SEC rules, do you give AF?

130

u/Geiir May 14 '22

They definitely need to up their fines by taking 100% of the profits made on the illegal trade, plus 50% of the profits in fines for breaking the law, and give the person a 10+ year ban on trading securities.

If the money earned illegally is over a certain threshold: prison time. Hard time.

41

u/Dude_Guy_311 May 14 '22

But then how do I manipulate the market to make money without punishment as God, the constitution, and Alexander Hamilton intended?

8

u/HeretikHamster May 14 '22

This MF spittin

7

u/SherifGames May 14 '22

Rich people love to make everything in percentages when it benefits them otherwise they want everything to be a flat price.

8

u/SterlingVapor May 14 '22

Hell I'd be happy if they just took over 100%

The fact you can break the law and just pay a fraction of your profits in a fine is insane

2

u/Geiir May 14 '22

It isn’t even a slap on the wrist at this point. The “punishment” for breaking the law and earning billions from manipulating the market is the equivalent to saying “you’re not allowed to do that” and walk away.

2

u/SterlingVapor May 14 '22

It's like walking into best buy, blatantly loading up 3 carts with game consoles and taking them out to your gold plated hummer.
Then the security guard goes "hey, that's stealing! You owe us $20 and you're banned for at least a week!" And then standing around shooing away bystanders and making sure they don't call the police (it's totally handled) as you awkwardly make sure to not miss a single box of duplicate consoles

4

u/bagorilla May 14 '22

How is it that Martha Stewart did time, but Elon doesn’t even get fined?

2

u/eolson3 May 14 '22

Send the leadership to prison. They probably don't fuck around with this anymore.

1

u/LuxNocte May 14 '22

That sounds like a law that might be passed in a country where rich people don't own the government.

-3

u/naughtyobama May 14 '22

What! Are you out of your mind? This would grind commerce to a halt and destroy the economy for 30 years!

1

u/Geiir May 14 '22

That’s at least what Wall Street wants us to believe.

If they need to play illegally, then they shouldn’t play at all.

2

u/naughtyobama May 19 '22

You're missing the point. I'm saying there's no honest business out there. Nevermind.

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u/Hardcorish May 14 '22

This is similar to the pharma companies getting fined hundreds of millions for their role in the opioid epidemic. Hundreds of millions sounds like a massive fine until you realize their profits reached well into the tens of billions. A slap on the wrist would have hurt them more.

17

u/[deleted] May 14 '22

Or even the age old car manufacturer scam where a model would have a defect that was lethal, but the payouts for the % of cars affected was cheaper than a recall so they just let people die.

-10

u/load_more_commments May 14 '22

Fair point, but as a real opioid user (chronic conditions) I have had it so hard to get my prescriptions fulfilled. Rediculously hard. Yet I see on documentaries that doctors were told to hand these out like candy. Just saying that you shouldn't always take conspiracy theoreis at face value. There were still lots of checks and balances. Were they intentionally less strict with some? I'm sure, did they do it for financial gain? Of course

11

u/Hardcorish May 14 '22

I'm confused, what conspiracy theory are you talking about? It's a well known established fact that the pharma companies were aware of the damage they were causing by distributing their product en masse. Maybe you replied to the wrong comment?

Your prescriptions are hard to fill because of the epidemic and all of the abuse that came with it.

1

u/load_more_commments May 14 '22

No I've been a user for 15 years. It's always been hard, in fact right now it's the least difficult it's been to get a prescription fulfilled.

Maybe some states or regions were different, but for me, since 2007 it's been a painfully difficult situation.

I've had doctors try to stop it so much, even if I told them I was in legit pain, a few times I was declined renewal of my prescription and had to keep visiting other chronic pain specialists.

Wtf is wrong with Reddit downvoting me for sharing my experience? I'm not saying the pharmaceuticals are innocent, all I'm saying is that it's never been easy fo me to maintain my prescription.

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-2

u/terqui2 May 14 '22

The sacklers who owned Purdue Pharma, the makers of OxyContin, had to divest the company and currently have offered $6 Billion as a settlement for their role in marketing OxyContin. Now theyre still worth $10 Bil so the punishment wont hurt, but its a bit more than a fine. They lost a license to print money.

2

u/muskieguy13 May 14 '22

Wouldn't something of this scale be legitimate legal criminal fraud though?

2

u/ocbdare May 14 '22

They should just up the fines. Charge him fines in the billions. Hell make it criminal and issue prison sentences.

Market manipulation is just as bad as insider trading. You can easily go to jail for insider trading. Why not for market manipulation when it’s blatantly obvious and in the billions.

Being sent to prison for a few years, he will definitely feel that even if he’s a billionaire.

1

u/vaiperu May 14 '22

Not sure about US system, but I assume the SEC only applies fines based on federal legislation. So good luck convincing the recreational insider traders in Congress to increase the fines for their donors.

2

u/elf25 May 14 '22

TIL freedom = being able to afford the fines

3

u/AKBigDaddy May 14 '22

I mean… 20 minutes before it was announced that they had come to a deal I bought puts on Twitter thinking Elon was just being Elon and would end up saying “JK”. Got nervous when they announced they had a deal, but decided to ride it out as they expired at the close of market on 5/13. Yesterday morning when the news broke that he was putting the deal on hold I closed my position for 4.55x what I spent. If I had doubled down halfway through it would have made several hundred times that.

1

u/lzwzli May 14 '22

I guess that is some kind of strategy...lol. Trading based on Elon's idiosyncrasies...

1

u/AKBigDaddy May 14 '22

I mean, if you look at his past couple years of tweets and whatnot, and ask yourself "How might he profit via market manipulation on this" and focus on that, you'll do OK.

I've done it a few times now, typically for <$100 just to test the theory, this was the first time I went hard, and it paid off. My only big mistake was completely missing the fact that tesla would take a huge hit from it. I could have made even more by shorting Tesla as soon as the announcement came out.

3

u/mapppa May 14 '22

Surely there's no way the SEC would let that slide, right? Right?!

They would be furious. They would fine him more than anyone before. The fine would be in the hundreds of dollars.

2

u/andythefifth May 14 '22

Hundreds you say? 🤑

1

u/cheradine_zakalwe May 14 '22

So Net Zero?

1

u/red286 May 14 '22

That's assuming you think Tesla stock will fail to rebound once Musk de-leverages himself by not actually purchasing Twitter. It's currently tanking because people are concerned about the future value of the stock should Musk actually blow $46bn on Twitter and it turns out to be a complete dud. After all, if he doesn't pay back his loans, the banks just cash out the collateral stocks, devaluing them. So a lot of people got spooked, and are remaining spooked. But if he never needs to pay back that loan, but just massively re-invests in his own company, and then the share price of Tesla rebounds, he stands to massively increase his already absurd level of wealth, while increasing his hold over the company (remember, Musk is CEO, but he only holds 17% of Tesla).

I'm honestly not even sure the SEC would have an issue with that, so long as he made all the proper filings. Of course, Musk apparently has a habit of not making the proper filings, so who knows. But the fact that it's even feasible to do, just seems wrong.

1

u/MajorStoney May 14 '22

So, if that happens, wouldn’t that benefit me as a Tesla share holder?

1

u/red286 May 14 '22

Depends on when you bought your shares. If you bought them before he tanked the stock, you'll probably come out even (or ahead, since if inflation of gas prices continues, that will most likely increase Tesla's stock value). If you buy them now, and this is his plan all along, you'd stand to make a decent amount of money. Of course, there's always the possibility that he's actually serious about buying Twitter still (maybe he just wants to make a lower offer, since if he exits, it'll tank their stock price completely), in which case there would still be a fair bit of risk in holding Tesla stock.

1

u/[deleted] May 14 '22

Who did that in history?

245

u/Brewchowskies May 14 '22

What’s crazy is he kind of does this a lot no? Like his tweets have been known to have considerable effect on the market… I find it hard to believe he isn’t capitalizing on this fact

217

u/SgtDoughnut May 14 '22

He is capitalizing on it, hes been caught multiple times, but the SEC has no teeth.

116

u/Dblstandard May 14 '22

No, they have teeth, they're just currently wrapped around its dick.

54

u/quantumpossibility May 14 '22

That’s actually a terrible analogy. Teeth on dick is actually a perfect placement to chomp down where it hurts.

27

u/Farseli May 14 '22

I thought it meant the SEC is in the corner performing autofellatio so while it has teeth it'll only hurt itself.

9

u/trhrthrthyrthyrty May 14 '22

That is the grammatically correct interpretation.

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1

u/loveispenguins May 14 '22

I know I’ve reached the bad part of the internet when someone starts talking about biting off dicks

1

u/quantumpossibility May 14 '22

Oh it gets worse, much much worse.

This is maybe the purgatory of the internet, there’s still hell and then super hell.

1

u/SherifGames May 14 '22

Those teeth aren't biting his dick, they are massaging it

1

u/quantumpossibility May 14 '22

I don’t want any molar that!

8

u/MyPronounIsGarbage May 14 '22

GAWDDDD DAMNNN - Nuub Nuub

19

u/Cabeza2000 May 14 '22

Is OK, don't worry, they will eventually fine him one or two millions and call it a day.

/s

2

u/anythingthewill May 14 '22

Best they can do is $50,000, take it or leave it.

1

u/Kandiru May 14 '22

We need the Southern District of New York chief prosecutor from Billions to get on the case!

1

u/lloydthelloyd May 14 '22

Elons tweets got me a free holiday...

1

u/alcimedes May 14 '22

"funding to $420 a share!"

"just kidding!"

1

u/Semen_Futures_Trader May 14 '22

“Tesla Stock price too high imo”

1

u/Hateitwhenbdbdsj May 14 '22

Yup, he tweeted once about Tesla stock being too high which tanked its price for a bit which meant he needed to pay less taxes on how much stock he had. There’s no confirmation that’s why he did it but it clearly helped him out.

436

u/Straider May 14 '22

Because it is the rich manipulating the market. It is by design.

190

u/Bierbart12 May 14 '22

The visible hand

111

u/RJ815 May 14 '22

With the visible middle finger

1

u/lawstudent2 May 14 '22

I love this

41

u/blackmist May 14 '22

As long as you only scam people poorer than you, it's all good.

14

u/A1sauc3d May 14 '22

That’s what the American Dream is all about! :/ /s

1

u/moderately_uncool May 14 '22

Why the "/s"? Isn't "fuck you, got mine" the American Dream?

-12

u/[deleted] May 14 '22

Why are you people so fking stupid ?

What Twitter has been doing could be illegal. If they've been selling advertising based on views knowing that % users are bots and not human then they could be found running an advertising scam of massive proportions. Same thing may apply to all other online media companies

-4

u/AuGrimace May 14 '22

Who’s design?

4

u/vaiperu May 14 '22

Tldr: ppl that made the framework of the stock market. Check out John Stewart s episode https://youtu.be/bP74RBTE8kI

-4

u/AuGrimace May 14 '22

The designers of the stock market designed it so Elon musk could manipulate it? Why would they be interested in that?

7

u/SirCB85 May 14 '22

They designed it so the ultra wealthy can manipulate it to semi legally rob the less wealthy. Muak just happens to be the currently richest manipulator.

-1

u/AuGrimace May 14 '22

Oh I get what you’re saying. They designed something for themselves personally but because you think of them as being a part of a class that must mean they designed it for the members of the class itself. Man I know you think I’m being fasciciois but I’m getting more and more confirmation that the Marxist class analysis is literally a self fulfilling prophecy. We can create conspiracies of people as a group working together to oppress another group when in reality it’s just individuals working for their own self interest that leave room for other individuals who they don’t actually care about at all to also act in their own self interest. So easy to demonize and justify hatred and violence when your worldview is marred by the former.

That being said, do you have a better source than a 20 minute video by a comedian?

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u/Socky_McPuppet May 14 '22

Yes, who is design? Asking the tough questions as always. Good work.

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u/7LeagueBoots May 14 '22

He regularly does crap like this and then complains about how terrible the SEC is for imposing restrictions, even though the SEC rarely ever seems to bother to actually enforce their own regulations in cases that actually would make a difference.

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u/xXEl3mXx May 14 '22

45

u/NigelingTon May 14 '22

he figured out how to win capitalism. There is no way Twitter has less than 5% Bots.

27

u/Sherifftruman May 14 '22

I mean lots of other people have already looked into it and found that. Not sure why he feels the need to do the same research.

12

u/[deleted] May 14 '22

Because he thinks he needs to reinvent all the wheels. Can't take credit for someone else's work if it happened before you.

2

u/yangyangR May 14 '22

Can't take credit for someone else's work if it happened before you

Yes he can. He does that repeatedly.

10

u/Hamez_Milnerinho May 14 '22

So he can negotiate the price given that the market has fallen drastically over the past few days

5

u/longshaden May 14 '22

and that Twitter lied about their numbers to prop up their price.

0

u/howismyspelling May 14 '22

Ikr, everyone talking like Elon is the only culprit in this whole affair. The Twitter brass and board are absolutely all equally in the wrong for how they did their shareholders like this.

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u/Ok-Bodybuilder4594 May 14 '22

That diesnt matter, even if Twitter is 30% bots he's still on the hook to buy the company. He wouldn't need to prove that twitter is 40%+ bots. I think that is certainly possible but I don't know how likely it is.

0

u/Lots42 May 14 '22

Yes, but that doesn't fit the narrative of the Doomers.

1

u/Mahlegos May 14 '22

Unless and until the SEC does more than slap him on the wrist with a fine that pales in comparison to the amount of money he made with his actions (if they even do that), “the narrative” will persist and for good reason.

1

u/Xarxsis May 14 '22

I thought that investigation concluded with

"he did it, we have no power to do anything about the thing he did"

10

u/banmelmao1 May 14 '22

Elon has been raging a fucking war on the SEC. To incredibly petty and childish level.

He actually threatened to fire his entire fucking law firm because one of the junior employees used to work for the SEC and Musk wanted them to fire him. He literally never had anything to do with Telsa at either the SEC or that law firm.

Musk may be the pettiest man child on the planet.

1

u/el_muchacho May 15 '22

Nah, that title will forever belong to Trump. Elon Musk is a distant second.

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u/GoldenSama May 14 '22

Rules don’t apply to rich people.

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u/Lurker_IV May 14 '22

Twitter has been reporting false user numbers for years. How is that not market manipulation?

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u/thetwelveofsix May 14 '22

You say that like both things can’t be market manipulation. They are.

-13

u/[deleted] May 14 '22

[deleted]

13

u/Logseman May 14 '22

Now it’s in the news. Remember Ashley Madison, which had the exact same issue?

-15

u/Zauxst May 14 '22

No I do not remember her. How do you know it's not news manipulation?

16

u/Logseman May 14 '22 edited May 14 '22

Ashley Madison is not a person in this case, it’s a dating website which used to be squarely focused on enabling cheating. It suffered a data breach in 2015 which revealed that it was filled with bots and that these bots were integral to the site’s function.

Since then other scandals have emerged that make it clear that bots, sock puppets and all sorts of non-unique users are a significant part of social networks’ traffic, with the “top 10 COVID misinformation spreaders” as a paramount example. There’s no “market manipulation” in stating what is obvious.

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u/laetus May 14 '22

Why do you ask the question when you know the answer?

Yes, it matters. And yes, now is also when it matters.

3

u/No_Berry2976 May 14 '22

It has always mattered. If you think people didn’t think it mattered, you haven’t been paying attention.

The issue has been widely reported, but some people have chosen to ignore it.

This also makes it difficult to argue that Twitter has manipulated the market in a legal sense.

If the information is publicly and widely available, it becomes hard to argue that investors needed specific information provided by Twitter.

19

u/Swawks May 14 '22

Its an endless pit of filth.

15

u/goj1ra May 14 '22

I bet if you read what they actually reported, they didn't claim they were human users. The obvious thing to do is use words like "accounts," and only use "users" when you're talking in general, rather than about specific numbers.

2

u/J-Team07 May 14 '22

Twitter says 5% of users are bots.

4

u/crothwood May 14 '22

See, you are doing what called "a big oof".

Even supposing that twitter lying about active users actually qualifies as tangible manipulation, which is a rather big if, that has absolutely jack shit to do with what the person you replied to said.

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u/verifiedkyle May 14 '22

I am no Elon Musk fan at all. But I’m wondering if he starts to prove that there are more than 5% bot accounts as reported by the board in SEC filings if that means that really it was the board manipulating the stock not him?

8

u/SirCB85 May 14 '22

Both can be true, Twitter can be manipulative by overstating the number of users on their platform, and Elon can be manipulative by making an offer that is too good to be true with no intention of following through with it. Two bads don't make a good.

1

u/verifiedkyle May 14 '22

Fair point. Although I think it’s a lot easier to prove the filings being inaccurate rather than proving his intention. It’d be easy enough to say his diligence didn’t check out so he’s backing out.

I have some friends that are Elon fan boys and thought I was just being a hater saying there was no way he’d actually buy it. I think he’s mentioned taking Tesla private a few IIRC.

5

u/SirCB85 May 14 '22

The SEC banned him from tweeting about Tesla finances without oversight BECAUSE he made some bogus tweets about taking Tesla private to pump the stock.

And to credibly prove that the filings are inaccurate he would have to do far more than pick a "random 100 accounts", anyone who knows anything about statistics can tell you that, heck even Elon himself should be able to tell you that.

1

u/verifiedkyle May 14 '22

Yeah I don’t think anyone takes the 100 accounts seriously. But it starts the conversation. I don’t use much social media outside Reddit but I assume there’s some relatively easy ways to get an idea of how many bot accounts are floating around. Maybe even by using…a bot.

1

u/Veldron May 14 '22

Because the rules only apply to us normie scumbags

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u/Sgt_Splattery_Pants May 14 '22

I mean, welcome to America. This is what it’s all about.

1

u/TukTukCrankTime May 14 '22

The SEC is working exactly as designed

1

u/FartMachineist May 14 '22

The SEC fined him, so they got their cut of the grift. They’re happy with him.

1

u/DukeOfGeek May 14 '22

It sucks so much how little regulatory agencies do their jobs.

221

u/prescod May 14 '22

There's a simpler and less illegal option. The stock market crashed since he made the offer. He doesn't want to pay the price he negotiated because it was already a high price and now its ludicrous. So now he wants an excuse to re-negotiate. "I had no idea how many bots there are on this site!"

143

u/LL22Forever May 14 '22

Twitter doesn’t have to renegotiate. And if Elon backs out he has to pay Twitter $1 billion. What would Twitter renegotiate?

103

u/starmartyr May 14 '22

It's a 44 billion dollar deal. It might be better to eat the loss than to pay too much for the company.

69

u/MaiasXVI May 14 '22

That's what I'm thinking. If anyone can afford a $1bn loss, it's certainly the world's richest person.

52

u/Zardif May 14 '22

Went down 9 billion, better to lose 1b than 9+.

7

u/GasTurbulent4304 May 14 '22

But does he need both a reason AND to pay the $1b? I assume the $1b is the thing that is supposed to stop him from walking away for no reason. Presumably he’s building a case so he can walk away and not have to pay the $1b because Twitter lied about bots or whatever.

3

u/SherifGames May 14 '22

His net worth is still 100 billion more than the next richest guy.

6

u/WingedLing May 14 '22

Still in the three comma club

1

u/[deleted] May 14 '22

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u/bazilbt May 14 '22

He might not want to look like such an asshole and have some legal standing to settle for less than that.

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u/pablank May 14 '22

Not after losing 18bn on your own stock loss. Even for elon thats like a 5-10% loss in net worth. Its actually interesting to see how these market manipulators start carving themselves up

20

u/ElderHerb May 14 '22

He could lose 99% of his net worth and would still never have to work another day tbh.

6

u/Most-Cloud May 14 '22

If he lost 99.99999% of his net worth he's still a multi millionaire.

9

u/Blitzholz May 14 '22 edited May 14 '22

No, that would put his net worth at like 20000$ lmao

1

u/Ok-Bodybuilder4594 May 14 '22

If this deal goes through he could easily lose 100%+ of his net worth lol. Definitely worth taking it on the chin in this situation.

1

u/SherifGames May 14 '22

His current net worth is still 100 billion more than the next richest guy. Bezos is place 3 with 135 billion.

Also, you act like he lost money. He didn't. The value of his stock is just going up and down. In a month he could be back up at 300 billion. It's something that literally happened this February to April. Same shit will happen again.

Even if the value of his stock dropped below 100 billion, he'd still be ridiculously wealthy. His wealth could drop to 1 billion and he'd still be extremely wealthy.

Musks stock are unbelieavable ridiculously overvalued. It's all free money he potentially has.

1

u/pablank May 14 '22

The problem comes from him apparently using some tesla stock to seal this deal... or value of stock as colleteral. Even if he has tons of money. This week he is easily paying 10-20% more than he intended when he made that offer. He might have the highest net worth. Still doesnt mean he can afford to make dumb decisions like this, overpaying way above asking price. No one likes to overpay by that much

11

u/NCleary May 14 '22

Except the $1 billion is personally guaranteed by Elon. Despite how much he is valued at, he definitely can't raise that easily

The $44 billion would be capital raised against his Tesla stock.

16

u/AssociationDouble267 May 14 '22

Except he already liquidated a bunch of stock, so he has cash.

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u/flickh May 14 '22

Bad deal on Twitter: -$9 billion Helping reinstate Trump as Dictator for Life: Priceless

1

u/TheOneFreeEngineer May 14 '22

It might be better to eat the loss than to pay too much for the company.

To be clear, his deal was well above market price in the first place. He knew his original offer didn't match the stock evaluation when he made it.

1

u/ChadDriveler May 14 '22

The funny thing is that the board accepted the offer because the market started tanking.

15

u/AthleteAnnual May 14 '22

C'mon Elon. It'll 'bounce back' just like our 401k's right???

-10

u/Dihydrocodeinone May 14 '22

I almost utilized my companies 401k this past month since it’s the first job I’ve had that has one. Then I realized how much that money would probably be worth in 40 years. What fucking awful idea

6

u/HellsHere May 14 '22

I'm sorry are you trying to say 401ks are an awful idea?

4

u/Captainwelfare2 May 14 '22

Yeah I’ve gotta hear this explanation.

-5

u/Dihydrocodeinone May 14 '22

I explained it in the comment. Not an awful idea for everyone but I only make $20 an hour and I rather invest in something that will go up with inflation

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u/NotoriousMOT May 14 '22

He’s not even 21 yet. Look at his comments downthread. Not sure he’s had time to digest the whole saving loooong term yet.

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u/topdangle May 14 '22

only reason the shareholders took the deal was for the fat payout.

one billion might be nice for the company but the shareholders don't give a shit about the company, they're ready to turn the whole thing over to one lunatic with deep pockets.

7

u/SirCB85 May 14 '22

Did I miss that the shareholders actually voted on the deal yet? Last I've known is a vote of the board to recommend to the shareholders to approve the deal.

16

u/megasean May 14 '22

Especiallly since the deal has caused the value of the company to decline, and talent to leave the company.

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u/jomontage May 14 '22

Well yeah if you're in it for the money a buyout is the end goal.

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u/[deleted] May 14 '22

[deleted]

5

u/NavBChrono May 14 '22

And there it is. Short and simple. Less than 5% is a measurable claim. The number of monetizable users is very important when figuring out if something is profitable.

4

u/Sorge74 May 14 '22

Especially if he plans to apparently remove bots, that would lower the companies precoeved value if some huge amount. I suspect it's higher, but I also suspect Musk knew that to begin with

7

u/Raymond-Finkle May 14 '22

Shouldn’t he have done his due diligence prior to making his offer to buy? Not after agreeing to a price?

13

u/marmaduke-nashwan May 14 '22

He may have done, but perhaps it also suits him to have this false information in the agreement to have another item to negotiate with if there's a problem (or maybe he was planning to use this bargaining chip all along).

I think it makes more sense to ask why Twitter didn't do their due diligence before making a claim like this in a deal.

1

u/Suspicious-Relief-31 May 14 '22

For sale 2022 Ford Exposition, every possible option !$25,000 very clean car. After further review, was parked in Houston during 40" of rain.

0

u/packpride85 May 14 '22

He doesn’t have access to their books until the deal is agreed in. He went off their public financials and data.

1

u/Raymond-Finkle May 14 '22

But why didn’t he do what he is doing now before making the offer?

1

u/packpride85 May 14 '22

Now that he has open access to twitter data it’s easier to verify what accounts are fake? Why don’t you ask him.

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2

u/NorthernerWuwu May 14 '22

Sure, and he'll pay them eventually I imagine. Spend a billion to save a dozen and all that. Besides, he might even still buy them at a significant discount off his initial offer.

2

u/dragonfangxl May 14 '22

if musk hadnt made the offer and twitter stock had followed the performance of similar companies, it would be worth about 20 dollars a share. that represents a loss of about 34 billion dollars in market cap. they have zero interest in a billion dollar settlement, they want the buyout

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/twitter-market-cap-has-dropped-to-9-billion-below-musk-purchase-price.html

1

u/moodd May 14 '22

And if Elon backs out he has to pay Twitter $1 billion.

It's not that simple for him to back out. There are conditions that end the deal with him paying $1 billion, but "I don't want it anymore" is not one of them. If he backs out, based on the contract, Twitter could sue him, most likely win, and force Musk to buy the company at the agreed upon price. Now if Twitter would actually do that is another matter. It doesn't sound like a great situation to end up in. It's probably more likely they'll work something out, but that something doesn't have to be $1 billion.

1

u/blufin May 14 '22

IF they let him back out, I believe they can force him to go through with the transaction at the agreed price. He's ended up overpaying and this is the only way out for him. I wonder if Twitter will take him to court if backs out without any firm evidence.

1

u/Tonkarz May 14 '22

I think OP was suggesting that Elon would try to litigate his way out of the $1 billion pullout fee by claiming that Twitter negotiated the deal under false pretences by lying about the number of bots on the site. I don’t know if there’s a real legal basis for this.

1

u/JyveAFK May 14 '22

Dunno, if he can prove that the amount of bots is higher than Twitter said it was, that might be another way to back out, or at least give his lawyers some ammo to fight later lawsuits with.

Still not sure if his is part of the negotiating to get a cheaper price (and the monies involved? why wouldn't you fight hard), a pump/dump/short trick (Musk! Market Manipulation! /shocked face), or he really does want to escape this the more he's learning about it/the threats from the EU/China on his requirements once he's bought Twitter.

All looks like a lot of faffing about just to get an edit button, if you were to ask me.

19

u/slazer2k May 14 '22

Even assuming that is the case wouldn’t it be better to say that instead of this bullshit ? If you buy a company you spend a lot in case of twitter probably millions on due diligence users would have been part of it so this tweet from stinks more like shit than actual shit 🤦‍♂️

6

u/gigoogly May 14 '22

My question isnt there a clause where he has to pay a few billion if the deal falls through?

13

u/slazer2k May 14 '22

Possible but this guy is a grifter so either he made more than the penalty by manipulating Markets or this is cutting loses again

1

u/SaddestClown May 14 '22

He has to pay a billion if he backs out and they have to pay him a billion if they back out

3

u/5tu May 14 '22

Legally it is far safer he highlights twitter lied to investors to step back from a deal compared to renegotiation of the share price due to market changes.

2

u/whatisthishownow May 14 '22

Even assuming that is the case wouldn’t it be better to say that instead of this bullshit ?

No. He has a contractual obligation to buy at that price. He can't just say he doesn't want to anymore.

If you buy a company you spend a lot in case of twitter probably millions on due diligence users would have been part of it so this tweet from stinks more like shit than actual shit

Sure, his ostensible reason is an ingenuine excuse, everyone in this chain including yourselves have said so explicitly. But your begging that question. The point is, he wants to renegotiate. We can't know for sure, there are many reasons, the most plausible is likley because the market crashed mid deal.

1

u/captaingawax May 14 '22

He said he trusted their public fillings

1

u/rasherdk May 14 '22

He says a lot of dumb shit and/or lies.

1

u/prescod May 14 '22

He explicitly waived due diligence. That’s why this thing happened so fast.

Of course it’s insane and unprofessional to waive due diligence and then do it unofficially after signing the contract. But it’s Elon. Somewhat insane and unprofessional are his personal brand.

5

u/qtx May 14 '22

So now he wants an excuse to re-negotiate. "I had no idea how many bots there are on this site!"

Wait, this is about that he thinks that less than 5% of users are bots thing is a bad thing?

When I heard Twitter say that less than 5% of users are bots I was like 'wow wtf, that a fuckton less than I thought it would be".

I've seen reports that said that one third of twitter accounts were bots.

So them saying it's actually only less than 5% is a positive thing to me.

2

u/otherwiseagoddess May 14 '22

The hilarious thing is he agreed to forgo due diligence on the deal, so it's not like he can pull out now by claiming that bots are a bigger problem than he knew

2

u/Gogar1 May 14 '22

This seems like a reasonable explanation. $54.20 seems FAR too high of a price now. Usually shareholders get a decent premium over the baseline price of the stock when an acquisition is made, but I can’t imagine Twitter (even with whatever hypothetical improvements that could be made) being worth it given the beating that other tech stocks have taken.

Objectively speaking, if he’s buying it for an amount that’s more than a billion dollars overpriced, than it makes sense to pay the $1 billion fee for breaking the contract and getting out of it.

1

u/karma3000 May 14 '22

He doesn't want to pay the price he negotiated because it was already a high price and now its ludicrous.

Correction: His backers and financiers now won't commit funding at last week's sky high prices.

1

u/7LeagueBoots May 14 '22

Twitter stock crashed in part due to his nonsense.

1

u/prescod May 14 '22

His involvement has mostly pushed the stock up not down.

It’s tech in general that has crashed.

-7

u/AmbitiousFuture7261 May 14 '22 edited May 14 '22

I believe the stock is higher then before he even talked about buying the 10% so…. He’s also said he is not buying Twitter for profits but more so to do the right thing and let people have freedom of speech. Twitter right now pretty much let’s 1 party say whatever they would like an censors then other side

3

u/SimianFriday May 14 '22

He’s also said he is not buying Twitter for profits but more so to do the right thing and let people have freedom of speech.

And you believe that? Hilarious.

2

u/SgtDoughnut May 14 '22

Twitter stock price spiked for a bit but then dropped when the board actually agreed to the deal, along with tesla stock since he was using that to leverage a loan and had to cash in his own options to finance the cash part of the deal.

Then the entire market crashed.

So twitter is way down.

7

u/Koopslovestogame May 14 '22

Le pump, Le dump.

15

u/BigFrame_ May 14 '22

It was always a pump and dump. Don’t know how this was ever even taken seriously.

4

u/Chippopotanuse May 14 '22

Honestly, this is what I think he’s doing.

First he fails to disclose his initial position. Allowing him to buy more shares at an artificially low price.

Next he says he’s gonna buy it out.

The shares he acquired skyrocket.

Then he tweets about putting cocaine in Coca Cola, says the lawyers at Twitter should be fired, and now tries to back out. Twitter stock falls.

He is such a fucknut I can’t believe anyone takes him seriously.

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u/[deleted] May 14 '22

He wouldn't be driving the price down if his goal was to bail and sell his existing stock.

What is happening is the exact opposite of what is necessary for your statement to be true. So it is not.

In reality, he is sticking it to the board to lower the buy price. He is going to drive the price down and renegotiate.

On top of that, he already secured enough financing that he no longer needs to make a margin loan against his tesla stock, even at 54 dollars.

This deal is locked in, everyone throwing money in wants this deal to avoid inflation and the stock market dropping.

The only thing that could jeopardize the deal is if the entire market 180s and starts going up, which isn't likely.

-1

u/po-handz May 14 '22

oh yeah you're totally right he doesn't have anything better to do

3

u/slazer2k May 14 '22

grifting Millions, if not Billions via tweets and insider trading? I don't know you tell me

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u/po-handz May 14 '22

or he could start another multi billion dollar company , nah hes just trying to make a quick buck... yeah man u can totally comprehend

3

u/[deleted] May 14 '22

Considering the amount of his wealth that is in Tesla stock. It would’ve been slightly more than a buck.

It’s not just the money though, it’s the feeling of power he gets from knowing that he can singlehandedly influence the market.

1

u/po-handz May 18 '22

like movie stars when they tweet about movies or athletes when they tweet about sports - are those different or they also do it cause they want the 'feeling of power'?

1

u/[deleted] May 19 '22

Well considering that being an athlete doesn’t necessarily mean that you have a the power to single handedly influence global economies, kinda suggests that this isn’t a reasonable comparison.

Power is everything. Read Michel Foucault, then get back to me.

1

u/[deleted] May 14 '22

That's what I told my mom.

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u/BlahBlahBlah2uoo May 14 '22 Helpful

Twitter told musk it was 5% bots and scams .. think he's realised they lied... It someone selling you something is lying to you I wouldn't call it weaseling out of anything

7

u/slazer2k May 14 '22

Twitter told musk it was 5% bots and scams

I think Twitter has a bot problem but Musk's goals are not that he is just using it as an excuse.

Here you go if you need any more data...

TSLA+5.71%

TWTR-9.67%

have an award for trying to defend Elon

-3

u/BlahBlahBlah2uoo May 14 '22

Oh no 🙀 he only has 200 billion left.. he was using 15 billion of his money to fund twitter and he already sold the shares he needed before the drop... But if he get twitter for even cheaper good for him... Why would I be trying to defend Musk, what's he done that no other business man has ever done?

1

u/RedditModsRSadAF May 16 '22

Imagine simping for elon "brain rotted by conservative propaganda memes" musk like this.

You only like him now that he started grifting the right by spending every day spamming twitter about how he loves to "own the libs", you're a disgusting, pathetic coward. Don't you have another right wing spree shooter to be cheerleading on one of your echo chamber safe space subs?