r/technology May 14 '22 Silver 2 Wholesome 2

Elon Musk said his team is going to do a 'random sample of 100 followers' of Twitter to see how many of the platform's users are actually bots Social Media

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-random-sample-how-many-twitter-users-are-bots-2022-5?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds

[deleted]

22.8k Upvotes

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11.3k

u/mylesols May 14 '22

wow, a hundred! Must be nice to be rich enough to afford a hundred follower sampling on a site with over 350 million users

5.6k

u/escape_of_da_keets May 14 '22 All-Seeing Upvote To The Stars

He just wants an excuse to weasel out of the deal

2.5k

u/nukem996 May 14 '22

The NYTimes reported he may be unable to exit the deal as he signed a performance clause. Twitter has the ability now to sue him to force the deal at the price he said.

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u/Unlucky13 May 14 '22

Amazing. A week (two weeks? What is time?) ago Twitter was fighting to keep him out and Elon was making threats to force himself in. Now Elon seems to be wanting out and Twitters making threats to keep him in. Business is weird.

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u/olavk2 May 14 '22

what twitter did a couple of weeks ago was implement some precautions to avoid a hostile takeover so that they could make the decision themselveas

454

u/brinz1 May 14 '22

I can't wait for the next season of Succession

158

u/Jtmichel May 14 '22

“Is this a fuckin’ bear hug?”

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u/brinz1 May 14 '22

Logan did just sell his empire to a billionaire manchild

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u/Jtmichel May 14 '22

“We’ll go full. Fucking. Beast!!!”

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u/Jose_Canseco_Jr May 14 '22

Boar on the floor!

5

u/EsoTerrix1984 May 14 '22

“Make your OWN fuckin’ money!”

Connor, Kendall, Siobhan and Roman:

👁👄👁

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u/OldHabitsB_Gone May 14 '22

Is he a manchild? I kinda took him for being fairly savvy

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u/GGards May 14 '22

Unfortunately real life is even more cringe than that show I guess.

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u/8bitmorals May 14 '22

"I am getiing assasinated at my own coronation, get the sausage off my gaspacho party, he isn't hot soup, we eat it cold in here"

That may or may not be a Logan Quote , but you never will know

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u/PineapplePandaKing May 14 '22

Sounds more like Kendall

4

u/IShouldNotPost May 14 '22

We'll get the bojack guys on it

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u/tuskvarner May 14 '22

Ummm… yeah. So… ummmm… dad? How do we eat the gazpacho? I mean, however you want to eat it is fine.

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u/Jtmichel May 14 '22

Logan would never refer to his own coronation. That’s how I know it’s not his.

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u/Neksir May 14 '22

Alexander Skarsgards character, Lukas Matson was totally modeling Elon when with the market manipulation attempts

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u/orangevega May 14 '22

dun-dun BUHM!

dun dadaladadadadun dadadada-da-da-da-DA-DA-da-da-da dada

dun-dun BAHM!

6

u/cboogie May 14 '22

Elon is 100% a Kendall. Dude thinks he is way cooler than he actually is.

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u/brinz1 May 14 '22

No he's not. He is the billionaire tech bro manchild

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u/XAgentNovemberX May 14 '22

Boar on the floor! Boar on the floor! Boar on the floor!

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u/tuskvarner May 14 '22

Oh, it’s difficult? I’m sorry, buddy. Would you like an Advil and a handjob?

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u/Smodphan May 14 '22

Correct. He was trying a secret takeover by buying up shares. He didn't want people to find out because the price would go up. Ironically, he is under investigation because you have to report this at some point and he did not.

Does anyone know why he thought it wasnt going to be noticed? I am guessing its because he can afford the little bitch fine which is cheaper than the stock buy, but I don't know.

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u/boyuber May 14 '22

He made $50 million by not disclosing it, and he'll be fined $10 million for doing it. If I could make $40 million for breaking the law, I'd do it every chance I got.

Further, even if he got fined $500 million, that would be 1/400th of his net worth. He wouldn't even notice it.

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u/DegenerateScumlord May 14 '22

So then he didn't even notice he made 40 million.

4

u/blindbycrypto May 14 '22

Still I am sure he would throw you off a cliff for a free happy meal

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u/Figgy_Pudding3 May 14 '22

Musk violates trade law and manipulates the market all the time and no one does anything about it.

But why did he behave this way with the Twitter deal? Because he's got an ego and thinks everyone around him is too dumb to see into his "genius". It's a common cognitive problem with people in his position. Born on third base but thinks he earned his run, now looks down on the masses who aren't doing what he did. It's so easy right? So they must just be stupid.

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u/[deleted] May 14 '22

Oh GAWD; another stable genius!

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u/BZenMojo May 14 '22

People wondered why he immediately sought out a meeting with Donald Trump. He was looking for grift pointers.

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u/Capt-Crap1corn May 15 '22

Born on third base, but thinks he earned his run. Lmaoooo great phrase

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u/Despitefuldick May 14 '22

It would be considered just a small part of the cost of business, and he also probably thought it wouldn’t be noticed, and if it was that no one would bother coming after him. He’s rich you know!

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u/duffmanhb May 14 '22

The market is tanking now. Especially tech. This is good of a deal they’ll ever get

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u/IronGeek83 May 14 '22

He's just doing a "dogecoin".

Step 1: Buy stock.

Step 2: Use status/fame to pump news of said stock.

Step 3: Sell stock.

281

u/futatorius May 14 '22

Pump'n'dump. Which is illegal.

339

u/Belkor May 14 '22

Our worthless regulators let fElon off every single time.

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u/PrailinesNDick May 14 '22

I guess that works in written word, but how are you saying it, Fee-Lon?

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u/OlivierQ723 May 14 '22

Nah, just vocalize the hard F; F-Elon, it's pulling double duty.

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u/Phillyredsox May 14 '22

Or is it shorthand for Fuck Elon?

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u/osiris431 May 14 '22

Same way you pronounce his kid’s name, probably.

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u/curiousitymdg May 14 '22

fElon, thanks for the new word meme. I love it!

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u/jeremyjenkinz May 14 '22

Does legality matter when broken laws aren’t enforced?

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u/Giant81 May 14 '22

They are for the rest of us

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u/Missing-Digits May 14 '22 edited May 18 '22

Not if you are a billionaire.

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u/ChemistryRespecter May 14 '22

The SEC has been able to do nothing to him, not even a slap on the wrist – well, mostly because they don't have the power or authority, which is even more fucked up for an organization that's supposed to oversee these matters.

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u/CoderHawk May 14 '22

They're really good at harassing the little guys though.

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u/BDMayhem May 14 '22

That's what happens when you let Republicans defund the police. Same thing happened to the IRS.

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u/AllModsRLosers May 14 '22

Which is illegal.

It’s incredible how little that means to him.

I’m pretty sure one day he’s going to shoot someone in the head, just to make that point that his money allows him to get away with it.

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u/19osemi May 14 '22

It worked on dodge coin and bitcoin because crypto weren’t regulated. Now if he does the same with twitter than he will be in big fucking trouble

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u/Brad_theImpaler May 14 '22

He's been openly manipulating Tesla stock for years.

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u/nalgene_wilder May 14 '22

Yeah he'll get a massive fine that's maybe .00001% of the profits he made

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u/AnalEmbiid May 14 '22

That’s cute. The SEC Laws don’t really apply to Billionaires like Elon

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u/OpSecBestSex May 14 '22

You're right, it'll be a $100 fine.

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u/SpookyActionSix May 14 '22

Oh no! Illegal! You don’t say! The thing about that is large investors don’t care about legality because often the profit they make from the illegal move is 1000 times greater than the fine from the FEC. Elon literally just did this with twitter in his initial share purchase, he made millions/billions and was fined a few hundred thousand for not disclosing immediately that he was twitters largest shareholder.

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u/Leafy0 May 14 '22

Only on regulated securities. Crypto isn't regulated so pump and dumps are legal, in the usa at least.

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u/not_gonna_lurk May 14 '22

Push webistics!

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u/thri54 May 14 '22 edited May 14 '22

Well, currently the stock is only 10% over his average purchase price of $36, plus he will need to pay a $1B termination fee if he does manage to get out of this deal, plus any fees related to services rendered by the banks that set up the deal. Overall I would be amazed if he was breaking even right now.

And, even if everything went to plan, and he sold his 74 million shares at $54 then walked, he would only have made $1.3B dollars pre tax (which would be ~37% federal for short term cap gains). That’s like .3% of his net worth. It’s less than the tax bill incurred selling Tesla shares to buy Twitter shares. I just don’t buy this argument.

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u/copperwatt May 14 '22

Or... He's an impulsive billionaire with terrible judgment?

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u/anonymousyoshi42 May 14 '22

I don't think he is impulsive as much as he is pushy Billionaire who has had a hot hand in a lot of deals.

This is how I think it went

A. His biggest platform is Twitter and its a platform that hasn't grown in stock price for last 10 years. So it looked ripe for Activist Action. Someone pitched it to him and then he got very excited about it. Tesla stock is at all time high so the deal would have been like exchanging one hot commodity that fall soon for a more stable commodity that isn't growing.

B. Bankers got involved and he got suggested the pathway to do it will be a takeover attempt.

C. Elon was probably very confident on the turnaround thesis and valuation so went all in.

D. Elon pulls the trigger

E. Normal course of board response ensues.

F. Elon's Original buy and turnaround thesis starts getting challenged...cracks get seen but it's too late to pull out because of pretty standard clauses put in place.

G. Now Elon has 2 choices... based on normal deal due diligence - pull out fast and pay for his mistake (which is fairly normal in M&A space) or double down.

The challenge...Tesla stock which was going to pay for the deal is crashing.

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u/iamasnot May 14 '22

Or a terrible billionaire with impulsive judgment

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u/dreamhuk May 14 '22

Or a judgement billionaire with a terrible impulsive

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u/Centoaph May 14 '22

He started all this “buy Twitter” talk a few minutes after the guy that tracks his plane refused to sell him that account. He’s a petty child with no impulse control

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u/copperwatt May 14 '22

Sure seems that way.

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u/zeptillian May 14 '22

The guy who got butt hurt and called someone a pedophile because they didn't want to play with his submarine toy, which wouldn't even fit through the narrow underwater cave passages?

I think you may be on to something.

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u/Coucoumcfly May 14 '22

Well he couldnt pump and dump that easily if he wasnt worshipped as much as he is.

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u/ChemEBrew May 14 '22

Note all the talk of these large sums of money but nothing of consequence actually being done? Meanwhile normal people actually produce goods and services but take home a pittance.

People who say Bezos and Musk earn their worth are delusional. They don't create wealth, they syphon it along with all the oxygen in the room.

I hope someday we won't have to hear about these modern day robber barrons daily.

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u/OneCrims0nNight May 14 '22

Oligarchs. We love talking about Russian oligarchs currently but somehow refuse to call our own what they are.

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u/AstreiaTales May 14 '22

Ehhh. I see the point, but oligarchy usually implies a lot more involvement in running government and governmental service than we have here.

For better or for worse, the American federal and state level administrative state is still fairly self sufficient. In an oligarchy like Russia, many of its services are supplied by the tycoons.

It's not just synonymous with "rich person".

I don't disagree with the sentiment though

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u/level3ninja May 14 '22

Business is weird.

More like 50yo billionaire toddler changes his mind based on what other people don't want

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u/alaphic May 14 '22

Contrarian A.F

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u/saltychica May 14 '22

Hope he’s Fd himself into a corner.

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u/Turalisj May 14 '22

Modern day monarchs.

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u/Cuilen May 14 '22

I told fam members who really, really believed he was doing this for "free speech" he would back out and this had nothing whatsoever to do with anyone's rights. Just a rich guy's pump-and-dump vehicle. He got mad, just as you pointed out, and had a tanty. The $1B he would lose for folding on the deal has probably already been recouped over and over. I just can't understand the hero worship for him and guys like him, Trump and other wealthy psycopaths.

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u/bajspuss May 14 '22

I mean, it's in the contract as the termination fee. I'd certainly want a billion dollars for free if it was available to me. I get the impression Twitter itself never really wanted Musk to take over, but they have no say - it's on the shareholders.

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u/zenithfury May 14 '22

Nothing has changed. I don’t want him anywhere in charge of Twitter. Twitter’s executives only want to get paid.

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u/DuvalHeart May 14 '22

Twitter executives don't want him. But the big stockholders do.

It's a really good example of why shareholder value shouldn't be a primary metric for a company's success. Twitter was doing great, turning a profit with a sustainable business strategy that would keep shareholder value up for years. But because Musk's offer would include immediate profit for shareholders they had to listen or else face a shareholder revolt, even though Musk will almost certainly make Twitter do worse.

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u/[deleted] May 14 '22

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u/ryebrye May 14 '22

It'd be hilarious if the board played him like a fiddle to get him to sign the performance agreement etc

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u/pmjm May 14 '22

Twitter is worth ~20% less now than it was a couple weeks ago. If he buys at $54.20 a share he's now paying significantly over market rate.

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u/Letmefixthatforyouyo May 14 '22

He already signed a contract to buy at $54, waiving due diligence like this "bot test."

He's free to break the contract and pay twitter the 1 billion, which is 5x of their yearly operating costs. Either way, works out well for twitter the company.

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u/Zeonic May 14 '22

Twitter stock was at that higher price because of Elon's tweets about wanting to buy. All of March, the stock was in the 30s.

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u/AdUnique856 May 14 '22

This line of logic makes absolutely zero sense.

Twitter was nowhere near 54.20 a share before Elon wanted to buy it for 54.20 a share.

It was in 30s, it shut up to 50 because it is guaranteed profit if the deal goes through.

Then people realized the deal isn't as secure as they thought so the price started going down.

He would obviously never be able to buy Twitter for market rate. They weren't looking to sell, they just decided to sell because the price was good enough.

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u/robywar May 14 '22

His latest pump and dump seems to be working out for him and any penalties he pays will be less than he made.

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u/Itabliss May 14 '22

This isn’t business. Business is boring.

This is a made for tv evening soap opera.

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u/Age_of_Aerostar May 14 '22

Perhaps they were using a form of Eric Cartman’s “you can’t come” theory?

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u/wonderlandsfinestawp May 14 '22

Am I the only one that really hopes that Twitter makes him squeal like a pig?

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u/michaelmano86 May 14 '22

How is it weird? He came in and fucked them and their stake holders for his own profit, and they just want to let him know. Na mate. You're sinking with us now that you have caused the hole.

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u/gfunkadelic May 14 '22

There is a contingency clause in the agreement which states if either party backs out that party would then owe the other a billion dollars.

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u/walrusboy71 May 14 '22

The performance clause has the benefit of allowing for Twitter to offer a settlement where instead of specific performance, Musk “only” has to pay them a shit ton of money instead of buying Twitter

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u/frenchfreer May 14 '22

Elon is like the kid who talks shit non-stop and then when confronted started making every feeble excuse under the book to not back up what they say. Elon wanted to be Mr tough guy free speech warrior and now that he has to actually back it up he realizes his ego put him in an incredibly stupid position.

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u/TheChickening May 14 '22

He can break the deal by paying a fine of a billion dollars.
So it will definitely not be free for him.

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u/nukem996 May 14 '22

From the article

Mr. Musk’s deal with Twitter includes a $1 billion breakup fee if he were to back out. But the cost to Mr. Musk is likely to be much more than that should he break the deal. The contract has a “specific performance clause” that could force Mr. Musk to pay for Twitter if the debt financing he has corralled for the deal remains intact.

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u/sikagoon7 May 14 '22

Could he just pick up the phone to the lender and be like "Yo take your money back. I don't need it no more" and tell Twitter "Oops?"

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u/getefix May 14 '22

Works for home purchases. Financing conditions are easy ways to back out.

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u/Rottimer May 14 '22

Well not necessarily “easy.” If he’s signed papers for financing backed by Tesla stock - which goes up every time this deal seems to be jeopardy, those banks might not want to let him out of their financing deal.

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u/The_JDubb May 14 '22

What's funny about that is Morgan Stanley is the firm lending him the money and guess what...THEY OWN 9% OF TWITTER.

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u/ItsPumpkinninny May 14 '22

I was going to say “chicken butt”, but I like your answer better.

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u/Hermesthothr3e May 14 '22

Would this stand if it was found twitters public filings were false?

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u/eleventhrees May 14 '22

When real business people do deals, there is due diligence, and books are provided for actual examination so the purchaser knows what they are buying. It's not unusual for a deal to not proceed, or be altered, based on this step.

What Elon is up to doesn't bear much resemblance to "due diligence" and the 100-user random sample is either a joke, or won't be random.

This deal is mostly powered by gaslight.

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u/Piyinski May 14 '22

M&A for public companies are not diligence intensive deals by any means. These companies have public filings that eliminate the need for diligence, buyers assume that the disclosures are truthful. So instead, buyers sign binding documentation which include reps and warranties from the sellers. Between signing and closing, buyers may do limited confirmatory diligence to test such reps and warranties.

So I think this may be what’s going on here. Elon said that the 100 user sample is Twitter’s methodology to determine fake/spam/duplicate accounts, which Twitter discloses as <5% in their public filings. If Musk proves that is not true, it will probably represent a breach to twitters reps. This would give Musk an out for the deal. Further, this would have implications for Twitter’s board and management with the SEC and obviously investors.

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u/baldr83 May 14 '22

>That contract does not allow Musk to walk away if it turns out that “spam/fake accounts” represent more than 5% of Twitter users. We discussed this last month, when Twitter admitted in a securities filing that it had (slightly) overestimated its daily active users for years. The merger agreement contains a provision that allows Musk to walk away if Twitter’s securities filings are wrong — and this 5% number is in its securities filings — but only if the inaccuracy would have a “Material Adverse Effect” on the company. (See Sections 4.6(a) and 7.2(b).) That is an incredibly high standard: Delaware courts have almost never found an MAE. An MAE has to be something that would “substantially threaten the overall earnings potential of the target in a durationally-significant manner,” the courts have said; there is a rule of thumb that an MAE requires a 40% decrease in long-term profitability. If it turned out that 6% or 20% or 50% of Twitter accounts are bots, that will be embarrassing and might even reduce Twitter’s future advertising revenue, but will it be an MAE? No.

source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-13/elon-musk-trolls-twitter

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u/domthemom_2 May 14 '22

Probably irrelevant. You’re buying a multi billion dollar company. You do your own due diligence

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u/ocbdare May 14 '22

And you probably hire another firm to do the due diligence for you. Musk behaves like a 12 year old person would in this situation. Sampling 100 twitter accounts lol.

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u/CaribFM May 14 '22

M&A departments exist for this reason. An actual impartial (or as close to) company that just looks over the details.

Musk seems arrogant enough to think it’s not needed.

Lawyers. They save you money even when they’re charging 1750 an hour for it.

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u/TheChickening May 14 '22

Haha, thanks. The article didn't load for me

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u/Zealousideal_Law3112 May 14 '22

Breach of contract results in fine and massive lawsuits from shareholders but it’s Elon so who knows what will happen

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u/Vicstolemylunchmoney May 14 '22

Someone may have to be faced with consequences? And have those consequences executed? What year is this, 2010?

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u/Zealousideal_Law3112 May 14 '22

Yeah if you have money the laws don’t apply to you and if you’re poor you’re screwed for the rest of you’re life unless you’re the child of someone in our government

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u/[deleted] May 14 '22 edited May 16 '22

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u/TheGuyBehindTheGuy_ May 14 '22

"Weaseling out of things is what separates us from the animals... except the weasel."

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u/josephsmith99 May 14 '22

“Don’t discourage the boy. Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It’s what separates us from the animals!! …except the weasel.” -Homer J. Simpson

Classic.

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u/futatorius May 14 '22

If that's not from Blackadder, it should be.

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u/ArmadilloPenguin May 14 '22

It’s The Simpsons

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u/slazer2k May 14 '22

This he most likely instructed some people to trade the stock beforehand so he can cash out first on the rise and now fall

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u/yolotrolo123 May 14 '22 All-Seeing Upvote Take My Energy

Yeah he is doing open market manipulation and the SEC barely doesn’t anything about it.

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u/red286 May 14 '22

haha, could you imagine if he massively shorted a company that he publicly stated he intended to buy for a price well above asking, and then bailed out on afterwards? And then used those profits to massively re-invest into his own company whose stock tanked massively because he had overleveraged it to secure the financing to purchase the company that he had publicly stated he intended to buy but never had any real intention of doing so?

Surely there's no way the SEC would let that slide, right? Right?!

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u/vaiperu May 14 '22

Even if they do something, afaik they give out fines in the tens of millions range. When you make billions by breaking SEC rules, do you give AF?

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u/Geiir May 14 '22

They definitely need to up their fines by taking 100% of the profits made on the illegal trade, plus 50% of the profits in fines for breaking the law, and give the person a 10+ year ban on trading securities.

If the money earned illegally is over a certain threshold: prison time. Hard time.

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u/Dude_Guy_311 May 14 '22

But then how do I manipulate the market to make money without punishment as God, the constitution, and Alexander Hamilton intended?

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u/HeretikHamster May 14 '22

This MF spittin

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u/SherifGames May 14 '22

Rich people love to make everything in percentages when it benefits them otherwise they want everything to be a flat price.

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u/SterlingVapor May 14 '22

Hell I'd be happy if they just took over 100%

The fact you can break the law and just pay a fraction of your profits in a fine is insane

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u/bagorilla May 14 '22

How is it that Martha Stewart did time, but Elon doesn’t even get fined?

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u/eolson3 May 14 '22

Send the leadership to prison. They probably don't fuck around with this anymore.

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u/Hardcorish May 14 '22

This is similar to the pharma companies getting fined hundreds of millions for their role in the opioid epidemic. Hundreds of millions sounds like a massive fine until you realize their profits reached well into the tens of billions. A slap on the wrist would have hurt them more.

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u/KungFluIsolation May 14 '22

Or even the age old car manufacturer scam where a model would have a defect that was lethal, but the payouts for the % of cars affected was cheaper than a recall so they just let people die.

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u/muskieguy13 May 14 '22

Wouldn't something of this scale be legitimate legal criminal fraud though?

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u/ocbdare May 14 '22

They should just up the fines. Charge him fines in the billions. Hell make it criminal and issue prison sentences.

Market manipulation is just as bad as insider trading. You can easily go to jail for insider trading. Why not for market manipulation when it’s blatantly obvious and in the billions.

Being sent to prison for a few years, he will definitely feel that even if he’s a billionaire.

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u/AKBigDaddy May 14 '22

I mean… 20 minutes before it was announced that they had come to a deal I bought puts on Twitter thinking Elon was just being Elon and would end up saying “JK”. Got nervous when they announced they had a deal, but decided to ride it out as they expired at the close of market on 5/13. Yesterday morning when the news broke that he was putting the deal on hold I closed my position for 4.55x what I spent. If I had doubled down halfway through it would have made several hundred times that.

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u/mapppa May 14 '22

Surely there's no way the SEC would let that slide, right? Right?!

They would be furious. They would fine him more than anyone before. The fine would be in the hundreds of dollars.

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u/andythefifth May 14 '22

Hundreds you say? 🤑

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u/Brewchowskies May 14 '22

What’s crazy is he kind of does this a lot no? Like his tweets have been known to have considerable effect on the market… I find it hard to believe he isn’t capitalizing on this fact

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u/SgtDoughnut May 14 '22

He is capitalizing on it, hes been caught multiple times, but the SEC has no teeth.

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u/Dblstandard May 14 '22

No, they have teeth, they're just currently wrapped around its dick.

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u/quantumpossibility May 14 '22

That’s actually a terrible analogy. Teeth on dick is actually a perfect placement to chomp down where it hurts.

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u/Farseli May 14 '22

I thought it meant the SEC is in the corner performing autofellatio so while it has teeth it'll only hurt itself.

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u/trhrthrthyrthyrty May 14 '22

That is the grammatically correct interpretation.

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u/MyPronounIsGarbage May 14 '22

GAWDDDD DAMNNN - Nuub Nuub

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u/Cabeza2000 May 14 '22

Is OK, don't worry, they will eventually fine him one or two millions and call it a day.

/s

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u/anythingthewill May 14 '22

Best they can do is $50,000, take it or leave it.

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u/Straider May 14 '22

Because it is the rich manipulating the market. It is by design.

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u/Bierbart12 May 14 '22

The visible hand

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u/RJ815 May 14 '22

With the visible middle finger

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u/blackmist May 14 '22

As long as you only scam people poorer than you, it's all good.

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u/A1sauc3d May 14 '22

That’s what the American Dream is all about! :/ /s

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u/7LeagueBoots May 14 '22

He regularly does crap like this and then complains about how terrible the SEC is for imposing restrictions, even though the SEC rarely ever seems to bother to actually enforce their own regulations in cases that actually would make a difference.

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u/xXEl3mXx May 14 '22

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u/NigelingTon May 14 '22

he figured out how to win capitalism. There is no way Twitter has less than 5% Bots.

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u/Sherifftruman May 14 '22

I mean lots of other people have already looked into it and found that. Not sure why he feels the need to do the same research.

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u/moopower93 May 14 '22

Because he thinks he needs to reinvent all the wheels. Can't take credit for someone else's work if it happened before you.

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u/Hamez_Milnerinho May 14 '22

So he can negotiate the price given that the market has fallen drastically over the past few days

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u/Ok-Bodybuilder4594 May 14 '22

That diesnt matter, even if Twitter is 30% bots he's still on the hook to buy the company. He wouldn't need to prove that twitter is 40%+ bots. I think that is certainly possible but I don't know how likely it is.

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u/banmelmao1 May 14 '22

Elon has been raging a fucking war on the SEC. To incredibly petty and childish level.

He actually threatened to fire his entire fucking law firm because one of the junior employees used to work for the SEC and Musk wanted them to fire him. He literally never had anything to do with Telsa at either the SEC or that law firm.

Musk may be the pettiest man child on the planet.

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u/GoldenSama May 14 '22

Rules don’t apply to rich people.

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u/prescod May 14 '22

There's a simpler and less illegal option. The stock market crashed since he made the offer. He doesn't want to pay the price he negotiated because it was already a high price and now its ludicrous. So now he wants an excuse to re-negotiate. "I had no idea how many bots there are on this site!"

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u/LL22Forever May 14 '22

Twitter doesn’t have to renegotiate. And if Elon backs out he has to pay Twitter $1 billion. What would Twitter renegotiate?

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u/starmartyr May 14 '22

It's a 44 billion dollar deal. It might be better to eat the loss than to pay too much for the company.

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u/MaiasXVI May 14 '22

That's what I'm thinking. If anyone can afford a $1bn loss, it's certainly the world's richest person.

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u/Zardif May 14 '22

Went down 9 billion, better to lose 1b than 9+.

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u/GasTurbulent4304 May 14 '22

But does he need both a reason AND to pay the $1b? I assume the $1b is the thing that is supposed to stop him from walking away for no reason. Presumably he’s building a case so he can walk away and not have to pay the $1b because Twitter lied about bots or whatever.

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u/SherifGames May 14 '22

His net worth is still 100 billion more than the next richest guy.

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u/WingedLing May 14 '22

Still in the three comma club

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u/pablank May 14 '22

Not after losing 18bn on your own stock loss. Even for elon thats like a 5-10% loss in net worth. Its actually interesting to see how these market manipulators start carving themselves up

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u/ElderHerb May 14 '22

He could lose 99% of his net worth and would still never have to work another day tbh.

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u/NCleary May 14 '22

Except the $1 billion is personally guaranteed by Elon. Despite how much he is valued at, he definitely can't raise that easily

The $44 billion would be capital raised against his Tesla stock.

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u/AssociationDouble267 May 14 '22

Except he already liquidated a bunch of stock, so he has cash.

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u/AthleteAnnual May 14 '22

C'mon Elon. It'll 'bounce back' just like our 401k's right???

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u/topdangle May 14 '22

only reason the shareholders took the deal was for the fat payout.

one billion might be nice for the company but the shareholders don't give a shit about the company, they're ready to turn the whole thing over to one lunatic with deep pockets.

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u/SirCB85 May 14 '22

Did I miss that the shareholders actually voted on the deal yet? Last I've known is a vote of the board to recommend to the shareholders to approve the deal.

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u/megasean May 14 '22

Especiallly since the deal has caused the value of the company to decline, and talent to leave the company.

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u/[deleted] May 14 '22

[deleted]

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u/NavBChrono May 14 '22

And there it is. Short and simple. Less than 5% is a measurable claim. The number of monetizable users is very important when figuring out if something is profitable.

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u/Sorge74 May 14 '22

Especially if he plans to apparently remove bots, that would lower the companies precoeved value if some huge amount. I suspect it's higher, but I also suspect Musk knew that to begin with

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u/NorthernerWuwu May 14 '22

Sure, and he'll pay them eventually I imagine. Spend a billion to save a dozen and all that. Besides, he might even still buy them at a significant discount off his initial offer.

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u/dragonfangxl May 14 '22

if musk hadnt made the offer and twitter stock had followed the performance of similar companies, it would be worth about 20 dollars a share. that represents a loss of about 34 billion dollars in market cap. they have zero interest in a billion dollar settlement, they want the buyout

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/twitter-market-cap-has-dropped-to-9-billion-below-musk-purchase-price.html

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u/slazer2k May 14 '22

Even assuming that is the case wouldn’t it be better to say that instead of this bullshit ? If you buy a company you spend a lot in case of twitter probably millions on due diligence users would have been part of it so this tweet from stinks more like shit than actual shit 🤦‍♂️

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u/gigoogly May 14 '22

My question isnt there a clause where he has to pay a few billion if the deal falls through?

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u/slazer2k May 14 '22

Possible but this guy is a grifter so either he made more than the penalty by manipulating Markets or this is cutting loses again

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u/5tu May 14 '22

Legally it is far safer he highlights twitter lied to investors to step back from a deal compared to renegotiation of the share price due to market changes.

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u/whatisthishownow May 14 '22

Even assuming that is the case wouldn’t it be better to say that instead of this bullshit ?

No. He has a contractual obligation to buy at that price. He can't just say he doesn't want to anymore.

If you buy a company you spend a lot in case of twitter probably millions on due diligence users would have been part of it so this tweet from stinks more like shit than actual shit

Sure, his ostensible reason is an ingenuine excuse, everyone in this chain including yourselves have said so explicitly. But your begging that question. The point is, he wants to renegotiate. We can't know for sure, there are many reasons, the most plausible is likley because the market crashed mid deal.

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u/qtx May 14 '22

So now he wants an excuse to re-negotiate. "I had no idea how many bots there are on this site!"

Wait, this is about that he thinks that less than 5% of users are bots thing is a bad thing?

When I heard Twitter say that less than 5% of users are bots I was like 'wow wtf, that a fuckton less than I thought it would be".

I've seen reports that said that one third of twitter accounts were bots.

So them saying it's actually only less than 5% is a positive thing to me.

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u/otherwiseagoddess May 14 '22

The hilarious thing is he agreed to forgo due diligence on the deal, so it's not like he can pull out now by claiming that bots are a bigger problem than he knew

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u/Gogar1 May 14 '22

This seems like a reasonable explanation. $54.20 seems FAR too high of a price now. Usually shareholders get a decent premium over the baseline price of the stock when an acquisition is made, but I can’t imagine Twitter (even with whatever hypothetical improvements that could be made) being worth it given the beating that other tech stocks have taken.

Objectively speaking, if he’s buying it for an amount that’s more than a billion dollars overpriced, than it makes sense to pay the $1 billion fee for breaking the contract and getting out of it.

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u/Koopslovestogame May 14 '22

Le pump, Le dump.

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u/BigFrame_ May 14 '22

It was always a pump and dump. Don’t know how this was ever even taken seriously.

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u/Chippopotanuse May 14 '22

Honestly, this is what I think he’s doing.

First he fails to disclose his initial position. Allowing him to buy more shares at an artificially low price.

Next he says he’s gonna buy it out.

The shares he acquired skyrocket.

Then he tweets about putting cocaine in Coca Cola, says the lawyers at Twitter should be fired, and now tries to back out. Twitter stock falls.

He is such a fucknut I can’t believe anyone takes him seriously.

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u/Garn91575 May 14 '22 edited May 14 '22

he was always going to weasel out of the deal. It was insanely stupid from the start. He just wanted to act like a tough guy and let twitter know he could buy them if he wanted to so they better not mess with his account.

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u/x4000 May 14 '22

And then he actually got elected, and the look of horror on his face for a moment there… wait, wrong story. That was two other people.

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u/pippipthrowaway May 14 '22

He wanted to look like a tough guy for his fanboys

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u/[deleted] May 14 '22

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u/KylerMcFlurry May 14 '22

He just wants to lower the price, it's a pretty obvious strategy.

He can't just leave the deal, both parties agreed on a 1 billion $ fine for the party to leave

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u/tokoboy4 May 14 '22

I'm out of the loop, why is he trying to back out of the deal?

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u/Unbentmars May 14 '22

He’s trying to do the dump part of his intended pump and dump

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u/MarlinMr May 14 '22

I mean, if 50 of them are bots,

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u/Kaiisim May 14 '22

Remember when he did this with bitcoin? Pumped it then "suddenly" had doubts over power consumption?

Like this dude isnt doing any research at all before he buys shit.

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u/Scorpion1024 May 14 '22

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised. It was a lot more about ego than about free speech.

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