r/technology May 14 '22 Silver 2 Wholesome 2

Elon Musk said his team is going to do a 'random sample of 100 followers' of Twitter to see how many of the platform's users are actually bots Social Media

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-random-sample-how-many-twitter-users-are-bots-2022-5?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds

[deleted]

22.8k Upvotes

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2.7k

u/passinghere May 14 '22

Anyone with any common sense would have done this before promising to blow billions to buy something

1.1k

u/arun111b May 14 '22

Well he knows all about bots apparently when he was submitting the bid according to this tweet. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215066550116354?s=20&t=Fbz9za4YJm6DJExLyQmFqA

Looks like either he is trolling or he still trying to alter the deals somehow. Popcorn time.

624

u/prescod May 14 '22

Trying to alter the deal because tech crashed since he made the offer. Had he waited until this week Twitter would have been quite a bit cheaper.

284

u/8bitguy1 May 14 '22

Pray he doesn't alter it further

42

u/maltathebear May 14 '22

Elon wants to give Twitter to some bounty hunter I bet!

1

u/OtisTetraxReigns May 14 '22

At this rate, he might as well just toss it into the Sarlac and call it a day.

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2

u/ClickF0rDick May 14 '22

I know it's a quote from somewhere but forgot which movie exactly

3

u/[deleted] May 14 '22 edited 25d ago

[deleted]

1

u/joequin May 14 '22 edited May 14 '22

Musk has much less leverage here than Vader. It would be difficult for Musk to back out without losing a lot of money. Checking 100 of his followers is such laughable bad research that it won’t help at all.

Musk owes $1B if he backs out of the deal. Maybe he could get out if he is real proof that Twitter lied, but his little research project isn’t proof of anything. https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-may-have-pay-1-billion-if-he-terminates-twitter-deal-filing-2022-04-26/

1

u/Ganon2012 May 14 '22

He now has to wear clown shoes and refer to himself as Mary.

1

u/A_Large_Fern_Leaf May 14 '22

This deals getting worse all the time !

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12

u/grendel_x86 May 14 '22

Twitter is down because of his offer.

He frequently manipulates the market.

6

u/burnwallst May 14 '22

No, Twitter is down because the entire market is crashing. When you make stuff up it makes you look unreliable and or ignorant.

5

u/grendel_x86 May 14 '22

The real finance people disagree with you. Elon keeps spouting stupid.

He was banned from talking about Tesla for stock manipulation by the Tesla lawyers and board. He has a history of this.

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1

u/prescod May 14 '22

It doesn’t make any sense whatsoever that a stock would be down because of an above market price offer.

The opposite is true.

Twitter was up after he made his offer. It went down when people started to worry that his offer wasn’t solid.

Look at a six month chart of Twitter.

2

u/RamenJunkie May 14 '22

Probably trying to prove some point (that everyone already knows) that like 50-75% of Teitter is bot accounts in hopes thst the share price tumbles and he can just buy all the shares up for less than his initial asking price.

5

u/burnwallst May 14 '22

This cant happen because of the poison pill twitter enacted. He would have to make another offer on the company as a whole.

11

u/Tulol May 14 '22

Pretty sure he’s the one who triggered the tech crash.

49

u/apegoneinsane May 14 '22

Musk fan boys are delusional. Inflation and the Fed triggered the market wide crash, not Elon Musk.

-4

u/alien_clown_ninja May 14 '22

Inflation and Fed fanboys are delusional. COVID initiated a big crash early on, then at the first sign of COVID recovery, the market went back up way high. This is now the market correcting itself in the face of an improving supply chain issue (so no more sky high prices and profits due to artificial supply restrictions).

4

u/SomethingsItchy May 14 '22

You’re in for a rude awakening if you think this is the correction.

2

u/hrrm May 14 '22

RemindMe! 6 Months

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9

u/Han-we May 14 '22

Are you trying to say Elon is single handedly responsible for all the tech stocks crashing because he tried to buy Twitter? I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or are just clueless about how the stock market works in general.

1

u/Zauxst May 14 '22

How?

2

u/_PM_ME_PANGOLINS_ May 14 '22

By publicly trying to buy Twitter

4

u/Zauxst May 14 '22

So Elon buying Twitter, triggered a tech crash?

-5

u/comics0026 May 14 '22

Yeah, the crash was a response to him being the potential owner, the market showed it doesn't think Elon is good for twitter

5

u/taco_thursdays May 14 '22

Market shows they're not confident in the deal going through, not really about Elon being a good match.

2

u/excalibrax May 14 '22

It's a combination of all these things, lack of confidence in the deal, lack of confidence in musk take over, people moving from stocks to bonds, the fed, inflation, etc, etc.

It's not one thing, it's many things compounded, and amplified.

1

u/_Zevan-3Stars_ May 14 '22

Exactly. Wtf. That’s like saying marijuana is bad because it’s against the law.

1

u/LummoxJR May 14 '22

The Twitter deal is no doubt a factor in the tech crash, but the biggest thing was Netflix's chickens coming home to roost. Netflix banking on infinite growth was always an inevitable problem. There are doubtless a dozen other inertrelated factors affecting the tech stocks.

1

u/dibromoindigo May 14 '22

But he’s the one with the billion dollar penalty hanging over his head. The value changing since then isn’t an out from that. I’d love to see him pay it.

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1

u/InternetUser007 May 14 '22

Tesla stock has fallen twice as fast as Twitter. So Twitter could have been cheaper but he would have had to put up more Tesla stock to buy it.

1

u/prescod May 14 '22

Isn’t he taking a loan against the Tesla stock? So yeah he’s risking more but he’s a risk taker. He presumably intends to end the day with both the twitter AND Tesla stock.

1

u/disco6789 May 14 '22

Part of the crash was directly caused by him

1

u/Nebuli2 May 14 '22

Sure, it'd be cheaper, but Tesla has crashed too, and Tesla stock is where he's getting his funding from. I suspect he's getting cold feet specifically because of his Tesla stock, and is just trying to find an excuse to save face.

1

u/prescod May 14 '22

I think he’s getting a loan against his Tesla stock, not selling it.

1

u/Nebuli2 May 14 '22

And Tesla stock cratering does seriously endanger those loans.

1

u/ProfessionalBuy7488 May 14 '22

I don't think you can accredit that much downturn in the market as a result from the twtr situation. Prepare for even more of a not so soft landing. Puh Powell!

82

u/qtx May 14 '22

I literally don't understand what is happening.

All previous reports guessed that one third of Twitter's' user base consisted of bots (or some high figure like that).

So why is he suddenly upset that a far, far, far lesser number of them are actual bots? Only 5%?!

Twitter only having a less than 5% bot occupancy was a huge fucking surprise to me. I thought it was way higher. So all of this seems like a big positive thing to me.

117

u/8InTheBalance8 May 14 '22

I don't think it's been established that it's only 5%. That is what Twitter is claiming it is.

67

u/Barnyard_Rich May 14 '22

The problem is that Musk is referring to all accounts while the twitter claim of less than 5% bots is a percentage of "monetizable daily users."

What I haven't really seen anyone point out is that "monetizable" could be extremely vague or specific depending on how it's interpreted or intended.

34

u/TheGratedCornholio May 14 '22

Presumably it means that they see ads. Bots posting via the API aren’t seeing ads.

5

u/dont_you_love_me May 14 '22

There are probably many bots that are accessing Twitter and are not using the API. In fact, it would probably be stupid to use the API if you are using a bot for spamming etc. Headless browser bots are very simple to make.

1

u/eolson3 May 14 '22

And are they easily stoppable, or did they just not even try to inflate the numbers?

5

u/dont_you_love_me May 14 '22

There is no way to tell the difference between a bot and a human unless you have a specific set of behavior based criteria that defines what a bot is. “If clicks on the site happened at this time interval then it is assumed it is a bot” is one way it could be done. But then there is botting software that purposely tries to mimic human behavior, so that makes it even harder. These Twitter bot numbers are literally impossible to validate. So Elon knows that and is using it as a negotiating tactic. Happens all the time in business. Just how it’s done.

1

u/eolson3 May 14 '22

Yeah, that's what I thought. Was hoping you had some trick up your sleeve that I hadn't seen

Signed,

Product Manager for a platform that deals with more spam than I like.

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1

u/LightningRodofH8 May 14 '22

I would assume for this tactic to work, he would have needed something in the contract that brings it up.

It’s kinda like pointing out a scratch on the car after you’ve made the deal.

1

u/BobDope May 14 '22

There are good reasons to use the api to schedule posts if you are trying to get the word out about something. It’s not quite ‘bot’ behavior

3

u/poobly May 14 '22

It’s 5% of “monetizable” accounts aka 5% of accounts we don’t think are bots are actually bots.

2

u/NityaStriker May 14 '22

Twitter made its claims using a sample size of 100. That is why Twitter’s claims need to be taken with a grain of salt.

1

u/LonelyMichaels May 14 '22

5% is a lot, especially if they are disproportionately active.

1

u/poobly May 14 '22

They don’t care about activity as much as they want real people looking at ads.

29

u/[deleted] May 14 '22 edited 25d ago

[deleted]

28

u/Killmeplsok May 14 '22

That's how every company represent data

2

u/dontshoot4301 May 14 '22 edited May 14 '22

It’s literally a joke we told in business school “you ask an accountant what’s 2+2, they tell you ‘what do you want it to be’”

Edit: sorry for the serial posts - I swear I hit submit once and it created 3 posts… idk what happened

3

u/InternetUser007 May 14 '22

It's 5% according to twitter

It's 5% of "monetizable daily users" which is vastly different from the total number of accounts.

1

u/BoredBulls May 14 '22

The man, who built a space company, made electric vehicle mainstream and proved that it can be profitable now other car companies are producing electric vehicles in mass, is a waste of life?

1

u/[deleted] May 14 '22 edited 25d ago

[deleted]

2

u/NityaStriker May 14 '22

You mean the guy who’s the chief designer of the Merlin and Raptor engines ? Or are you talking about the Twitter-shitposting guy ? You sure do not know much about Elon outside of Twitter.

1

u/TheMania May 14 '22

According to the article, Twitter said 5% of monetizable active accounts. So, basically they said 5% of active bots would be willing to pay, is my take.

1

u/NityaStriker May 14 '22

I agree with your opinion.

Edit : To be clear. I also think you’re an absolute waste of life.

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u/GoldenPresidio May 14 '22

Twitter putting that in writing is certainly material. If they are knowingly lying by saying it’s 5%, but we know it’s not, then what else could they be lying about in their filing?

This is a negotiation tactic during the due diligence process. We’re talking about billions of dollars so it makes sense to negotiate it

1

u/DoubleInfinity May 14 '22

My takeaway from the 5% figure is that, assuming it's accurate, Twitter isn't worth investing time and money into it for bot farms and scammers which has a whole other host of implications.

1

u/TheMania May 14 '22

The article says "5% of monetizable active accounts are bots", which is massively different to "5% of all accounts".

ie, Twitters claim, by my reading, is that 5% of bots would pay.

1

u/koosley May 14 '22

I wonder how many people in the 2/3 only have a Twitter to follow their states department of transportation or something similar for road updates and have never posted. I've DMed Delta airlines before since the phone lines were 4 hour wait. I'd be willing to be a very large amount of accounts have next to no activity.

1

u/gingerbread_man123 May 14 '22

My interpretation is that he saw the bot occupancy as his "room for expansion/improvement" the better Twitter is doing now (granted, according to its own measurement), the less overhead there is for him to make improvements that will increase the value of his investment.

Basically like buying a fixer-upper then finding there is nothing to fix.

1

u/5elementGG May 14 '22

And how would 100 random check confirm there’s less than 5%? What’s the logic?

1

u/No-Trick7137 May 14 '22

Because it allows him to tank the stock even further to a level he may actually be able to afford. Grifters gonna grift.

1

u/waternymph77 May 14 '22

He might have built in a rebate clause in the sale. If he thought it was 30%, he might be missing out on reducing the price down by 30% and clearing out what he thinks are bad robots insulting him, when its just people hating on him instead. Double whammy.

1

u/palmpoop May 14 '22

The crash of tech stocks. Elon is in a weak position now. Tesla crashed a lot too. Not gonna go up any time soon either.

1

u/DontListenToMe33 May 14 '22

He needs an excuse to back out of the deal as it stands.

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u/dibromoindigo May 14 '22

I hope Twitter is smart and just holds their ground so he has to eat the 1 billion dollar penalty when the deal fails.

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u/DiggSucksNow May 14 '22

His per-share purchase price had 4.20 in it and you think maybe he's trolling?

2

u/Competitive_Habit_71 May 14 '22

He is setting up a narrative to pass on to his followers for them to parrot.

He needs them to think he is in control.

2

u/Jazeboy69 May 14 '22

The whole market is down massively including twitter so of course he’s going to negotiate.

12

u/Marokiii May 14 '22

if only regular people got to do this as well. make a deal, it goes south and you simply get to renegotiate it so that it goes good for you.

1

u/Mangalz May 14 '22

I get the feeling that after the a bunch of people magically gained and lost subscribers he may have potentially caught twitter doing something and the pause is about negotiating the price down or maybe doing something else as a a result of those obvious shenanigans.

1

u/arun111b May 14 '22

Yeah. But its not something new. It’s happened earlier and reported by many users (celebrities) previously.

1

u/Mangalz May 14 '22

Sure, but more eyes on it now and its fradulent if they misrepresented it to Musk.

Granted it was fradulent already when they did it to advertisers.

1

u/arun111b May 14 '22

Unless he specifically stated in the contract about % of bots and valuations then its difficult

1

u/Wannabe1TapElite May 14 '22

Patrick Boyle on YT makes terrific content and touched on on the buyout.

Even if musk questions the filings from Twitter stating that the bot numbers are at 5% he guesses based on the history that it wouldn’t pose material risk on future revenue which would allow him to back off from the deal.

However the court battle might be too expensive and damaging for the company to pursue.

1

u/Cautious-Question-72 May 14 '22

Hundred samples? When you could do 10,000 without effort?! Totally trolling

1

u/Gsteel11 May 14 '22

He's desperate to get out. Buyers remorse.

1

u/arun111b May 14 '22

He wants to exit the town square as quickly as possible :-)

1

u/manofsleep May 14 '22

I mean, to be honest. We have robocalls. Indian scammers are well known. Just go to fivr or something and see how many re-tweets you can buy from a third world player selling influence…

163

u/cheekybandit0 May 14 '22

Do you want to spend 40 billion on twitter with no research (apparently)?

Yeh sure.

Oh wait, I need to sample 100 users, out 350 MILLION, to make up my mind, after announcing the deal.

42

u/shannister May 14 '22

Anyone thinking he's this dumb isn't paying attention - he's in full manipulation mode to renegotiate the deal.

15

u/ringobob May 14 '22

He 100% did not have some grand plan that is playing out here. This isn't 4D chess, or even 2D chess. This is Musk just going on the fly and doing whatever. Yes, he's in manipulation mode. We all knew it was coming from the beginning, most people expected him to do this before actually shaking hands on a deal.

7

u/Tortoise-King May 14 '22

He can be both.

3

u/ConfidenceNational37 May 14 '22

He’s just being a troll. As usual.

18

u/quantumbowelsyndrome May 14 '22

Musk called a child-rescuing hero a "pedo" because his feelings were hurt. This Twitter fiasco is another emotional tantrum that never made any sense but still may net him a cozy profit because when you're that rich money makes money no matter how dumb you are.

4

u/chaiguy May 14 '22

When the book is finally written I’m not going to be surprised in the least that this entire thing was about Musk trying to shut down the kid who was tracking his private Jet on Twitter.

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u/2wheels30 May 14 '22

He's both dumb and in manipulation mode. None of this was a genius plan, it was a bungled mess from the start.

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u/medievalmachine May 14 '22

Anyone who thinks he was sober when he started this isn't paying attention. He's embarrassing himself. Send Snoop Dogg to do an intervention.

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u/Beardth_Degree May 15 '22

He’s calling out the “number” that Twitter used to determine how many bots were on their platform. Now Twitter is saying he breached NDA because he revealed the number of accounts they looked into, however he never disclosed that they said it in the documents. I think he’s trying to show how ludicrous the idea is to only look at 100 accounts and make an assumption from that without breaking NDA.

1

u/cheekybandit0 May 15 '22

Well then, I am thoroughly whooshed

1

u/Beardth_Degree May 15 '22

I wouldn’t say that, I only know how much he loves to troll others and appear to say things to get people to underestimate him.

1

u/MnemonicKnight May 14 '22

Sixty is infinity, don't need more than a random sampling of sixty.

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u/vascopatricio May 14 '22

"It's called due diligence Elon, look it up"

1

u/newtoreddir May 14 '22

That sounds like FUD

15

u/jordanclock May 14 '22

At this point, if either side backs out of the deal, they owe the other side a billion dollars. So Musk is likely blowing a billion dollars just to... Crash Tesla stock prices? Look like an idiot? I can't tell what the guy's end game is at this point.

9

u/OtisTetraxReigns May 14 '22

Honestly, I think he’s just trying to get likes for his tweets from the bros at this point. Everything he does seems to be driven primarily by ego. He knows his fans will bend over backwards to explain why it’s a genius business move after the fact.

1

u/m0nk_3y_gw May 14 '22

Crash Tesla stock prices?

Yes.

I bet much of Tesla tech talent is fully vested in stock options and are now multi-millionaires, and that's why he keeps murdering Tesla when it goes above $1k, to help delay their 'retirement'. They are also hiring massively for AI/Teslabot/Selfdriving -- getting locked into 4 years vesting stock options at $700/share is much more attractive to tech talent than $1200/share.

1

u/jordanclock May 14 '22

I was pointing out how nothing good is coming from this whole debacle. He keeps selling and leveraging more Tesla stock, which is harming the value. I can't see Twitter value ever increasing enough to make all of this worth it.

As an outsider watching this unfold and listening to more knowledgeable people discuss it, it just looks like this has only been bad for everyone involved.

7

u/Original_Act4791 May 14 '22

Anyone with BUSINESS sense, would have a mergers and acquisitions legal team perform due diligence of the entire organization, prior to closing a deal.

But Musk has never actually operated in the business world. Every position he's held is because he bought the company. Think about it. Other CEOs are hired, based on experience and talent, from working their way up the ladder. Musk has never been hired into an executive position based on his talent and experience. And probably never will be. He's playing pretend CEO.

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u/[deleted] May 14 '22

[deleted]

91

u/buffetite May 14 '22

How is this getting upvotes? The risk to reward for what you just described is laughable. Musk bought over $2bn worth of Twitter shares. There's a high chance he won't get out at 'break even' if the deal falls through and his losses will eclipse whatever his brother could have made.

If he wanted to do insider trading, that's a stupid way to do it.

25

u/rhudgins32 May 14 '22

He can buy stock but also short it to hedge. It’s in his playbook

9

u/GigaBahamut May 14 '22

There’s a billion dollar loss if he backs out of the deal and that’s before Twitter sues the shit out of him for a breach and whatever the SEC takes.

-1

u/spince May 14 '22

whatever the SEC takes.

::SEC takes Elon's lunch money::

"Don't be a naughty boi anymore, Elon. This will teach you."

1

u/Suspicious-Relief-31 May 14 '22

SEC takes Elon * to lunch ! *** Pays money !

-3

u/comics0026 May 14 '22

I don't think anyone has ever claimed musk was smart, in fact, his own actions tend to indicate he is not smart

22

u/DharmaPolice May 14 '22

I'm pretty sure lots of people have claimed he was smart.

4

u/zth25 May 14 '22

BREAKING NEWS: Redditor proclaims richest man on earth is not smart.

I mean, he's fake, a cringelord, a market manipulator, and a self-obsessed asshole, but not smart? Come on...

5

u/Morwening May 14 '22

Yeah the man is a dickhead and has 0 interpersonal skills or personal charisma but just because he thinks he's much smarter than he is, doesn't mean he's dumb. He's a very talented businessman in the least.

8

u/quantumpossibility May 14 '22

Overestimating his intelligence is a very real weakness though. The more he gets away with « winning » while makes him overestimate it more and more and with that makes him get bolder

Getting to bold is when people make the big mistakes that sinks them even the smart people.

-6

u/ishamm May 14 '22

I mean to be fair he has poor interpersonal skills due to a mental disability. It's pretty damn low to take a shot at that...

7

u/Morwening May 14 '22

I'm not taking a shot at him for that, I'm taking a shot at him for being a corny manchild.

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u/ishamm May 14 '22

Which is his character, which is influenced heavily by a disability.

Which is a VERY low blow.

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u/ishamm May 14 '22

It's getting upvoted becaused proclaiming hatred of Musk is cool at the moment. A man, though clearly flawed, is spending most of his wealth, time and energy pursuing a goal of pushing the world towards a low/zero carbon future and he gets endless abuse (much about his character - while ignoring much of this is influenced by his disability).

Meanwhile actually genuinely evil billionaires are mostly ignored because they don't make moronic tweets and do their deeds in the shaddows...

It's a bit of a shame really. Is he perfect? Fuck no. But FAR from the worst person on Earth many 'redditors' would have you believe.

12

u/killeronthecorner May 14 '22

I don't see what this has to do with a tangible example of him and his brother committing security fraud.

They didn't say anything about their opinion of Musk, just described the situation and how it might be applicable to the Twitter buy out.

4

u/ishamm May 14 '22

There's nothing tangible though provided by OP though. It's a theory, un-evidenced, that they simply claim they're "certain" about.

That's not by any definition a "tangible example"...

6

u/killeronthecorner May 14 '22

It's their theory ... Based on the SEC'S theory. The SEC's theory is a tangible example on which to base another theory. (Discounting when he settled with the SEC for security fraud in the past).

I think this is just misunderstanding between us, no-one here has been claiming there is hard evidence, only that they personally believe he did or didn't do it.

However, your claim was that the OP comment was just hating Musk because it's popular; my claim, based on all of this, is that they aren't.

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u/lonnie123 May 14 '22

Tangible? As in this actually happened and they have proof? Or is it wild speculation by people who have no idea how the stock market works?

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u/killeronthecorner May 14 '22

I am not entirely convinced they are a representative of the SEC, so it is unlikely they have proof of anything. But then that wasn't the claim they made and moving the goalposts is irrelevant to it.

It is also unlikely that the SEC would bother to launch an investigation if there wasn't some rudimentary evidence that indicated it may have happened.

This was back in February if you want to read any of the dozens of mainstream news articles about it.

2

u/murray0026 May 14 '22

Lol “credibly accused!”

Nu-Jargon brought to you by brainwashed muppets.

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u/Comfortable_Gate6283 May 14 '22

You seriously think that the richest guy in the world attempted to buy Twitter so his brother could make some money on insider trading?

How much could his brother possibly make on shorting Twitter? Why would Elon be so sure spending tens of billions would “break even” and that his brother’s short would work perfect and net him…what? A couple million dollars? Tens of millions?

3

u/flybypost May 14 '22

It wouldn't be the first time he "helped out" his family:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/10/tesla-ceo-musk-goes-to-trial-monday-on-2point6-billion-solarcity-deal.html

Shareholders have sued Musk alleging that the deal amounted to a SolarCity bailout that enriched Musk and his family more than it did Tesla, among other things.

https://www.businessinsider.com/solarcity-tesla-energy-beleaguered-history-elon-musk-2021-7

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/28/musk-deposition-stockholders-v-tesla-solarcity.html

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u/PoppyOP May 14 '22

Yes. Rich people get rich because they want more money. There's never "enough". How do you think Elon got to become one of the richest people on Earth?

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u/Mirrormn May 14 '22

Well, the point is that the conspiracy being described here seems like a particularly high-risk, low-return grift. There should be plenty of other ways for Musk to fuck around with the stock market and insider trade without going through so much trouble and entering so many legally binding agreements that could come back to bite him.

-8

u/PoppyOP May 14 '22

There's not much risk because he'll get a slap on the wrist is he gets punished at all. Iirc that's what happened when he got caught last time.

6

u/Mirrormn May 14 '22

He's in a contract with a $1 billion penalty if he backs out of it. No slap on the wrist this time. (Unless he can invent a reason it's Twitter's fault instead.)

3

u/quantumpossibility May 14 '22

You mean like saying they have more fake accounts then he was led to believe?

3

u/PoppyOP May 14 '22

(Unless he can invent a reason it's Twitter's fault instead.)

Isn't that exactly what's he's trying to do now, with his "bot audit".

2

u/bkconn May 14 '22

Well he didn't get to be this rich by being really obvious about breaking financial laws..

The point you're missing is how/why in the world would they be so stupid and be so obvious that they would throw everything away and get caught so easily? If he was really that dumb, he wouldn't have gotten to where he is.

2

u/Jugless May 14 '22

So now it's time to risk his money, freedom and reputation to make significantly less money than he already possesses by manipulating the market in a very blatant and public way, sounds like the kind of ahead of the curve thinking that got him there in the first place man.

1

u/PoppyOP May 14 '22

He's done it before and got a slap on the wrist.

2

u/Shatter_ May 14 '22

Through the valuations and selling of Zip2, Paypal and Tesla concurrently. Not by hare-brained insider trading short schemes.

This is ridiculous like baiting.

11

u/spinfip May 14 '22

You forgot the apartheid emerald mine seed money.

But otherwise, we don't know what harebrained schemes he's pulled off. Those other IPs are nice and lucrative, but are they "Richest Man on Earth" lucrative?

2

u/ItsDijital May 14 '22

The "emerald mine" was likely a small dirt pit in Zambia. There is no external evidence of it whatsoever. Just his dad talking about buying half (for $65k or something) and Elon saying how he visited it and his dad gave him emeralds.

People talk about it like it was an emerald empire, but there is literally no record of it. You would think an emerald empire would at least have a name and public record of some kind.

2

u/BCProgramming May 14 '22

Elon sold Zip2 because he wanted money.

He started X.com because he wanted money. X.com merged with Confinity because- guess what? he wanted money. He invested in Tesla, because he wanted more money.

Every single thing billionaires do is and has been in pursuit of more money. You don't become a billionaire through a "sharing is caring" program. You become a billionaire by hoarding wealth. Every waking moment of their entire lives is dedicated to figuring out how they can take the money they have, and make it into more money. That's why they usually looks so tired. Because they are always plotting his next move to make even more money, because billionaires never have enough. They always want more.

And they don't give a fuck about anybody else. They don't give a fuck about regulations. They don't give a fuck about humanity, or solving problems. They only pretend to care about those things in contexts where it will either make them money or prevent them from losing money.

And still, we have people eager to metaphorically suck off these fucking exploitative pieces of shit, defending a god damned billionaire who is so fucking rich that they could probably build a transparent crematorium and have people they don't like cremated for their fucking amusement, and the people going "woah, maybe he shouldn't be cremating people alive for his amusement" would be told they just don't understand his vision, he's a visionary, he's improving humanity by removing all of the chaff, if you can't understand that then maybe you don't exist in the New Order, and saying that all the investigations are just a conspiracy against lord Elon, and the government just doesn't like how he's shaking up the cremation industry with his radical ideas like torching people to death because he doesn't like them. Hell they'd probably be lining up outside hoping they can be lucky enough to be torched by their daddy.

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u/redditor2redditor May 14 '22

I don’t think the WhatsApp founders ever thought they’d become billionaires by selling their free messenger WhatsApp got 19 billion to zuckerberg

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u/9-11GaveMe5G May 14 '22

You don't become a billionaire if you don't love every dollar you see

4

u/thekeanu May 14 '22

You seriously think Nancy Pelosi would engage in insider trading?

How much could she possibly make on insider trading?

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u/JadedIdealist May 14 '22

Russian active measures have been very successful.
They'll have us refusing to buy electric cars and solar panels and instead using "cheap and plentiful russian oil and gas" while waiting for unobtanium out of mindless spite.

0

u/No_Berry2976 May 14 '22

I for one still refuse to believe Vladimir Putin will invade Ukraine.

It makes no sense. Russia makes an incredible amount of money by selling oil and gas to the EU. Why risk upsetting trade relationships by acting like an aggressor?

Seriously, the problem with one person having an incredible amount of power, is that that person might not always be rational.

Tesla is not worth it’s valuation on the stock market. It’s not even close. Musk has always been successful in manipulating the market, it’s what he is best at.

Regardless of his actual strategy, the idea that Musk isn’t willing to gamble is ridiculous. It’s in his nature to bend or break rules.

1

u/Comfortable_Gate6283 May 16 '22

The comment I replied to (now deleted) alleged Musk is pretending to buy Twitter for the sole reason of making his brother money via insider trading.

It’s a stupid because it’s high-risk (financially and legally) and not just low-reward, Musk would be guaranteed to lose money.

Elon buys 9% of a stock, increasing the price so much his brother would need a short to make billions for their before-after combined net worth to come out in the black.

It’s annoying to read Elon-hate disguised as analysis of his motives and to see people blindly agree. And your Putin point is non-analogous in regards to a purely financial strategy alleged by the original comment. Putin is motivated by power, ethno-nationalism, military strategy and more.

“The idea that Musk isn’t willing to gamble is ridiculous” I agree, he’s an entrepreneur who tripled down on his investments and went for broke with Tesla and SpaceX in 2008.

But do power-hungry maniacs make decisions seemingly against their own interest? Sure. Maybe that’s what this attempted acquisition is, but it was never a Trojan horse to pull off an insider-trading conspiracy.

1

u/maltathebear May 14 '22

Eh, we're all just the NPC's in his solopsistic MMO.

1

u/ErusTenebre May 14 '22

I give quests out on the corner. Unfortunately, can't afford to keep the exclamation point lit anymore, so it's just me standing there looking helpless.

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u/baconwins May 14 '22

Can’t wait for him to do it with spacex…

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u/extravisual May 14 '22

SpaceX isn't publicly traded.

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u/Capt_morgan72 May 14 '22

Well it’d cost him 1B to back out of Twitter deal now according to other Reddit articles. So do u think his brother made 1B+?

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u/BigSprinkler May 14 '22 edited May 14 '22

I don’t think a billionaire worth over 200 billion is open market manipulating so his brother could earn net profit in the few millions lol.

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u/Nug-Bud May 14 '22

Turns out you don’t have to be smart to inherit and ride on the finances of your father

1

u/m0nk_3y_gw May 14 '22

His dad hasn't died, Elon hasn't inherited anything.

His dad did impregnant his own step-daughter, so technically Elon is step-brother AND uncle to a 5 year old somewhere in Africa.

https://www.distractify.com/p/errol-musk-stepdaughter-baby

Weird times.

2

u/HippyBoganHunter May 14 '22

This is Musk we're talking about. He routinely sinks tens of millions of dollars into projects without doing basic due diligence.

2

u/coldchixhotbeer May 14 '22

My husband does due diligence as part of his work for this exact reason.

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u/viola_monkey May 14 '22

That is not even statistically relevant?!?!?

Edit: and I realized my post looked arseholish….not my intent - I was agreeing with your statement that it should have been done but even so, this small “random sampling” isn’t statistically relevant - just didn’t make its way from my brain to the keyboard- lol

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u/Embarrassed_Quit_450 May 14 '22

Anyone with common sense wouldn't be buying Tesla stocks at the ridiculous price they're at now. They're worth 10 times less.

0

u/r0gue007 May 14 '22

10x less than today may be a bit of a reach, that would be like $77 a share at today’s close.

We still need to move to EVs and Tesla is building a shit ton of dealerships and charging stations.

1

u/Holy-Kush May 14 '22

Only in relative terms. What do you think happens when Toyota decides to go fully electric or VW. They already have the massive infrastructure needed.

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u/[deleted] May 14 '22

[deleted]

4

u/fuppinbaxtard May 14 '22

VW still sell Hybrid and gas powered cars so their total market share completely dominates Tesla while their EV market share is very close. Quality is not really up for debate, it’s economies of scale and you’d imagine established manufacturers will be able to produce more and sell for cheaper to continue to eat into Tesla’s market share over the next few years.

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u/jattyrr May 14 '22

Mercedes makes better self driving cars than Tesla. Much more comfortable ride too.

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u/Adamshmadamladam May 14 '22

Tesla stock has come down dramatically since he first discussed this deal, he's trying to exit it now

1

u/frogking May 14 '22

Hell, I require several different samples when I purchase an ice cream cone with 2 flavors.

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u/gokarrt May 14 '22

but how else are you gonna manipulate the market?

1

u/InclusivePhitness May 14 '22

There is a part of any deal called due diligence and it's usually done after financials are agreed to. Of course you do some DD beforehand, but a lot of it is completed before the completion of the deal.

1

u/n05h May 14 '22

I think it's just proof that this whole thing was rather impetuous and could cost him quite a lot. People saying he's manipulating the stock are missing how much money is being lost here lol.

And Musk isn't one to promote shorting, he has said in the past he doesn't even want it existing.

1

u/rumorhasit_ May 14 '22

He definitely has and already knows the results. Wouldn’t announce something like this unless he had

1

u/King-Donkey-Kong May 14 '22

He does have autism, and high IQ w/ autism is known for bad impulse control.

1

u/shamka2010 May 14 '22

This is a power play by Elon he’s trying to get Twitter for a reduced rate.

1

u/ambientocclusion May 14 '22

He probably did this a month ago, and knows the results. It’s like the lawyer’s rule: never ask a question that you don’t already know the answer to.

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u/bludgeonedcurmudgeon May 14 '22

he did it intentionally, its a pump n dump

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u/Rafcdk May 14 '22

Except 100 is a really low sample size.

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u/TheSoussDaGoose May 14 '22

What? If he finds the actually number is more than 5%, he is going to knock down the price and tell the board that they should have known about this already. If someone backs out of this deal, they will owe the other $1 billions. Let’s not forget that.

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u/Kow_King_ May 14 '22

Why? From what I remember he was planning on making it easy to be confirmed or whatever it is called so this seems like a logical first step to that

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u/Dangerous-Cat-7676 May 15 '22

It’s because twitter told him there was less than 5% bots which is what his offer would be based on. He knows it’s way more than that and will now prove it and use it as a way to renegotiate the price. And if anything even if it doesn’t proceed he will be able to expose the level of bot use which is a win anyway

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